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UK set for recession and weaker GBPECB anchoring rates and yields Uncertainty about Fed rate hike To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below
The US economy is on a firmer footing as financial conditions are more supportive and the drag from the low oil price is fading.The Fed is eyeing the next hike - job growth and global risks are key...
Pay 5Y swap against 2Y/10Y swap 3M fwd @ -28bp. P/L:-15bp/-38bp. 3M roll down flat.As rates have moved steadily lower, unsurprisingly, the yield curve curvature has steadily decreased. The 5Y point on...
The long-awaited speech at Jackson Hole by Fed Chairman Janet Yellen is due today at 16:00 CET. She will speak on the Fed's 'monetary tool kit' but is also expected to give her view on the timing of a...
Is the Riksbank making a mistake about what a specific policy decision means in terms of monetary conditions?Our case is that the government bond purchase program is extended by another half year in...
The long-awaited Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will start today and last until Saturday, with Fed Chair Janet Yellen due to speak tomorrow. The headline this year is 'Designing resilient...
We have changed our view and now expect the ECB to remain on hold at the meeting in September. We believe that in the ECB's view the incoming information since July does not warrant additional easing...
Today, details for the German GDP Q2 data are due out. German GDP growth was 0.4% q/q in Q2 and, according to the initial information from the German statistical office, positive contributions to...
The euro area PMI figures for August were little changed compared with the level in July and only the manufacturing PMI is lower than prior to the Brexit vote in June. The composite PMI new orders...
Today, we get the preliminary Markit PMI manufacturing index for August for the US. In July, the index climbed to its highest level since October 2015, indicating that the manufacturing cycle has...
It is 'Big Thursday' in Sweden .At 09:00 CEST, the National Institute for Economic Research (KI) is due to publish its survey on business and consumer confidence, where we see a chance of a rebound as...
We have a very light data calendar today with no scheduled data releases, which could potentially move markets.German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande and Italian Prime...
Next week in the US, we expect focus to be mainly on the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, where Fed Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak.In US, we expect an upward correction in the PMI...
Policy rates have bottomed in negative-rate countries but more QE is in the pipeline.Fiscal easing in the eurozone is on the cards but fiscal tightening is likely in most other major economies. We...
There is a very light data calendar today with virtually no scheduled data releases that could move markets.It was a relatively quiet session overnight in terms of news flow, data releases and price...
August Economic Tendency Survey (ETS) should signal fair domestic growth, strong labour market and falling price expectationsJuly Labour Force Survey (LFS) - lowest unemployment rate since 2008? July...
In the UK, focus today will be on retail sales. They showed a big fall of 0.9% m/m in June and consensus expects a small increase in July. However, this comes after a very strong period and the risk...