In the UK, focus today will be on retail sales. They showed a big fall of 0.9% m/m in June and consensus expects a small increase in July. However, this comes after a very strong period and the risk is clearly skewed to the downside in the coming months. We estimate inflation (RPIX) was flat for July, at 1.7% y/y.
The ECB is set to release the account (minutes) of the monetary policy meeting in July. Mario Draghi was slightly more hawkish at the meeting than expected as he said the ECB's assessment following the UK's EU referendum 'is that the euro area financial markets have weathered the spike in uncertainty and volatility with encouraging resilience'. We will keep an eye on additional information about the Governing Council's discussion of the impact of the Brexit vote (see more in ECB review: Door remains open for more easing , 21 July).
Vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Dudley (voter, dove) and Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams (non-voter, neutral) speak today. Their comments on the outlook for a Fed rate hike will be watched closely - especially after the dovish FOMC minutes released last night (see below). Two days ago, Dudley delivered hawkish comments that a rate hike in September could not be ruled out. He will most likely re-iterate this view.
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