In the US, the main release today is the ISM non-manufacturing index for November. We think the index is at a reasonable level and expect only a small increase from 54.8 to 55.0.
The Fed's Dudley and Evans ('dovish' members with 2017 voting rights) will speak today.
In the euro area, the Sentix investor confidence index for December is due to be released. The figure has continued to surprise on the upside in recent months and we expect another, though moderate, increase in the Sentix to 15 from 13.1 in November. Retail sales for the euro area for October are due to be released. We have seen two consecutive months of declines and we estimate the October figure will show a moderate bounce back to 0.8% m/m, led by a large monthly increase of the German figures.
The Eurogroup is due to discuss the progress in Greece's bailout programme and possible debt relief.
In the UK, the most important data release today is the PMI service index for November. The index has rebounded since the EU vote, but the fall in the service confidence indicator may signal that growth is beginning to slow due to Brexit uncertainties and the weaker GBP. We estimate the PMI services index fell to 53.2 in November from 54.5 in October.
Note also in the UK, that the Supreme Court hearing on the government's appeal against the High Court ruling that Parliament must vote on triggering Article 50 will begin today.
In the Scandi countries, industrial production data for Sweden is due out today.
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