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Michael Ashton
You Cannot Inflate the Debt Away By Michael Ashton - May 03, 2024 8

There is a popular meme that the government has an incentive to inflate, because the same debt is worth less in real terms at a higher price level. If inflation is high enough, then the government (it...

Michael Kramer
Fed Has No Idea When It Might Be Able to Cut Rates By Michael Kramer - May 02, 2024 14

The Fed meetings seem to create more confusion than needed, but it is what is what it is. I know that even though I wrote yesterday that at 2:35 PM ET, it was possible that we saw the usual FOMC press...

Alaric Pow
Why the American Debt Crisis Is the Market's Silent Killer By Alaric Pow - May 01, 2024 5

Comfort is often the worst enemy of the economy. Recall the Dotcom Bubble in 2001, which threw most investors off after a sustained bull run in tech stocks. In the same century, the world was hit with...

Michael Lebowitz
Fed Policies Turn the Wealth Gap Into a Chasm By Michael Lebowitz - May 01, 2024 15

In an op-ed for the Washington Post on November 5, 2010, Ben Bernanke did a victory lap, praising the Fed’s efforts in stemming the financial crisis. In the article, he discusses how QE and...

Michael Kramer
Markets Are Hedging Against a Hawkish Pivot Today   By Michael Kramer - May 01, 2024 6

The S&P 500 was down about 1.6% heading into the FOMC meeting and Quarterly Refunding Announcement today. The VIX 1-Day was up 8.3 points to 18.10, which suggests much of the decline yesterday...

Ipek Ozkardeskaya
Is the Fed Still on Track for a 2024 Rate Cut? By Ipek Ozkardeskaya - May 01, 2024

Mood among investors is not cheery into the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest monetary policy decision due later today. And it’s understandable. The Fed must respond to three straight month...

James Picerno
Recession Warning Via States' Economies Was a False Alarm By James Picerno - Apr 30, 2024 4

The value of modeling recession risk-based multiple indicators is a hardy perennial. The latest example comes by way of aggregating trends in the 50 US state economies for estimating the odds that an...

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