Market Overview

Instead of falling after the Fed lowered rates, the 10-year and 20+ year yields have risen. This seems incongruous given the dovish Fed talk. However, a lot of the cuts were baked into the bonds...

Causes generate effects. As noted in my previous post, if causal conditions have changed, the "guarantee" offered by statistics is empty. This leads to a simple question: what's changed? Have the...

The odds continue to look favorable that the US will dodge an NBER-defined recession through the end of the third quarter. Q4 still looks more challenging, but that’s guesswork at this point. By...

In our recent two-part series on the yield curve (Part One  Part Two) we discussed the four predominant yield curve shifts and what they imply about economic activity and monetary...

Increased expectations for another 50bps Fed cut The dollar continues to suffer but the euro’s strength is perplexing The positive impact of China’s measures gradually fades Gold and oil diverge...

Let’s continue to count. 41. The S&P 500 celebrated its 41st record high yesterday. Even though yesterday’s session began on a softish note – after the data showed the biggest drop in the US...

Chinese stocks rose overnight, thanks to the flurry of easing measures from its central bank (chart). The People's Bank of China lowered bank reserve requirements, cut interest rates, and will...

China has unveiled stimulus measures to boost the economy. The scale is not impressive - it is not an all-out crisis salvo but rather an attempt to stop a slide here and there. The People's Bank of...

Last week, the Federal Reserve made a significant move by cutting its overnight lending rate by 50 basis points. This marks the first rate cut since 2020, signaling the Fed is aggressively supporting...

Fed cuts by 50bps, sees another 50bps by December Investors turn more dovish, which implies upside risks Focus turns to PCE inflation due out on Friday at 12:30 GMT Some Investors Expect a...

Gold (XAU/USD) hovered near record highs on Monday despite higher-than-expected US Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures. The S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI dipped from 54.6 in...

So far, September isn't living up to its bad reputation for the stock market now that the S&P 500 and the DJIA are at record highs. At the start of the month, on September 2, we asked, "What...

As the Fed pivot starts with a 50-basis-point slash, the bond market expects more to come, and gold should benefit. Meanwhile, the risk of a second inflationary wave isn’t dismissed, and the Nasdaq...

“Over the course of the quarter, our credit challenges have intensified…our borrower is struggling with high inflation and cost of living and now, more recently, a weakening employment picture.” –...