Market Overview

“Over the course of the quarter, our credit challenges have intensified…our borrower is struggling with high inflation and cost of living and now, more recently, a weakening employment picture.” –...

The US is a tranquil island in a sea of troubles. Geopolitical turmoil poses a threat to the continued prosperity of the US. Like Hamlet, American foreign policymakers need to answer the following...

Support from the world’s major central banks, and the dovish expectations continue to rise this week. After lowering its 14-day reverse repo rate yesterday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC)...

Is an economy based on the wealth effect generated by front-running the front-runners really that stable? So the entire economy depends on the stock market going up as punters front-run the Fed--and...

From time to time, I like to point out errors that we make because we think in nominal space, or because we had 25 years of inflation being so low that we didn’t have to think about it very much. I...

Gold is not doing much today, but silver has already invalidated its breakout. The US Dollar Index is poised for a rally. Perhaps VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDXJ) will do the same...

Summary & Key Takeaways: Though above target, inflation has cooled sufficiently to support front-loading of rate cuts by the Fed. Business cycle lead indicators remain neutral to favourable, so...

The financial media appear to once again be leading the public astray about the Yield Curve situation. The media pounded and pounded the yield curve’s inversion as a signal about an imminent economic...

This week will be relatively quiet in terms of economic data. The main events are Treasury auctions for 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year notes, scheduled around 1 PM Tuesday, Wednesday, and...

Last week marked the end of my myopia and the beginning of the end of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) tightening cycle. The Fed started lowering its rates by 50bp – a bold decision that raised many...

As I have noted here for the past few months, the narrative surrounding generative AI has shifted dramatically. This is starting to lead to a shift in estimates of the major players’ potential...

The news of the week is NOT the Fed cutting 50 bps - yes sure, that’s important but there is something much more relevant going on. The Chinese economy keeps imploding from within. And we should pay...

Both the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada have kicked off interest rate-cutting cycles. Both the U.S. and Canadian economies are facing questions about recession risk. And both U.S. and...

The FOMC meeting and press conference for September was projected to be a dovish one. Fed Chair Powell was expected to cut rates by 50 bps. The preponderance of Wall Street lackeys were busy begging...