Market Overview

FOMC Minutes: Officials split on whether more rate hikes are needed to fight inflation Republicans are holding the line of significant spending cuts T-bill yields surge to 7% US stocks are declining...

The Fed seriously erred in 2021, focusing too much on supply and not enough on demand. The Fed can slow velocity but requires job losses and/or eroding consumer confidence. Forecasting the money...

(Wednesday market open) Investors seeking distraction from the ticking debt ceiling countdown clock get some this afternoon in the form of Federal Reserve meeting minutes and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)...

Rarely in the history of US economic analysis have recession forecasts been plentiful and widely embraced. All the more extraordinary is the ongoing resilience of the economy that defies the gloomy...

Dollar extends recovery, stock markets slide in risk-off session Sterling takes a hit despite hot UK inflation, RBNZ sinks the kiwiDebt ceiling nerves grow - are investors focusing on the wrong risk?...

Stocks have made a sharp reversal recently, with SP500 falling back to 4150, so it appears it was failure break higher after to overcrowded trade when everyone expected 4200 to be major breakout...

Last week there was a big drop in the US federal government’s account at the Fed (the Treasury General Account, or TGA for short). The latest figures show a TGA balance of only $57B, which...

Inflation peaked in June 2022. The one-month increase was 1.2 percent, and that followed a 0.9 percent rise in May. Those numbers will roll out of the annual calculation with the June and July...

The US is dangerously close to triggering its debt ceiling limit, yet markets seem very relaxed.The 2011 episode shows us how political incentive schemes can instead drag negotiations until the very...

(Tuesday market open) Despite lack of progress on the debt ceiling, Wall Street continues to behave as if a deal is likely to happen. Major indexes dropped slightly early Tuesday, but volatility...

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday spoke the words that investors have longed to hear: the rate-hiking cycle is ending. Except that maybe it isn’t.Speaking at a conference last...

Biden-McCarthy talks end with no deal but both sides remain hopefulStocks subdued but dollar edges up as Fed rhetoric stays on the hawkish sideEuro slips as mixed PMIs unable to lend much supportNo...

What seemed safe and rock-solid in a real recession melts into the air. We haven't had a real recession in forty years (1981-82), so only those in the workforce back then have any experience of how...

(Monday market open) Emerging from their best week since March, major stock indexes treaded water early Monday ahead of what could be a dramatic week highlighted by concerns over the U.S. debt...