Market Overview

I doubt any of our readers are too surprised by the CPI reading coming in a bit hotter than expected.The bulk of it was in energy costs. Food costs were mixed with bread and meat up while eggs and...

September is still hold, while swap contracts suggest odds of a 49.3% chance of a hike at the November 1st FOMC meeting The supercore inflation rate has risen the most since March Two-year Treasury...

The ECB meeting on Thursday is not likely to be as straightforward as many have seemed over the last year.Even before we get to the new economic forecasts and what that means for monetary policy over...

Oil prices extended 10-month highs on Wednesday. Meanwhile, annual inflation rose higher than expected to 3.7% in August.Oil prices soared to the highest since November 2022 on Wednesday...

The latest US report was a reminder that the fight against inflation will not be easy. We would guess that the most challenging period for the authorities has just begun.In August, the US CPI rose by...

Despite surging interest rates, there are few signs they are impeding economic activity or causing distress amongst borrowers. It may seem strange that higher rates are not proving troublesome for an...

Some analysts who favor one or two indicators to forecast US recessions have had a rough year. The reliance on a generally robust predictor may yet prove its worth in the months ahead. But so far the...

The monthly GDP numbers have been highly volatile, but we do expect slower growth over the coming months as the cooler jobs market and higher rates continue to biteThe UK economy contracted by half a...

How US inflation report affects the US dollar and stocks

Markets are torn. Will the ECB hike this week or not? We think it will, but we look at how different scenarios can impact rates and FX. Even in our base case, we suspect that convincing markets that...

On Monday, the Nigerian naira (NGN) was the best-performing currency among the 20 global currencies we track, while the US dollar showed the weakest results. The Australian dollar (AUD) was the leader...

With regard to US economic indicators, very little has happened over the past three months. Coincident data have become weaker but not dramatically so, while there have been no significant changes in...

Correlation is not causation, however, when you have such strong correlations in the market, you must take note of them. That is the case with the US treasury markets and the USD/CNH. Although the...

Valuations have driven all the S&P 500 stock market returns this year. Now the focus is on recovering earnings to drive the next leg of the bull market. These are being driven up by tech...