Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Bond yields are sending an economic warning as this past week 10-year Treasury yields dropped back to 1.3%. With the simultaneous surge in the dollar, there is rising evidence the economic...

US Treasury Bonds [represented by way of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT), shown below] has succeeded in two important breakouts: the descending trendline (green tint) and the price gap...

The 10-year Treasury yield fell sharply yesterday, dropping to 1.37% — the lowest since late-February. The ongoing decline offers more support for arguing that the reflation trade is fading.The...

Investors in U.S. Treasuries are shrugging off inflation worries and keeping yields well-contained. They seem to accept the argument from Federal Reserve policymakers that the recent increase in...

In recent weeks, I’ve been building models that estimate a theoretical “fair value” for the world’s most important interest rate: the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (see here...

Treasury investors have been lulled into a complacency that may or may not be well-founded. The June jobs report, due out Friday, will grab some attention but is unlikely to lead to any strong shift...

Investors left no doubt in anyone’s mind that they like bonds from the European Union as they ordered €142 billion of the first bonds in the pandemic recovery program, prompting the banks...

US high yield bond spreads are near historic lows amid a strong macro backdrop The Fed’s future actions could put upward pressure on the US HY OAS, but we believe that to be a ways...

The sharp drop in Treasury yields in the past week is worrisome on its own, but what's most troubling is the total absence of any compelling explanation for what's happened. We look at the different...

The European Central Bank seems to be taking its cues from the Federal Reserve, so the ECB governing council’s decision last week to keep its monetary policy accommodative is a good hint about...

US government bonds have come under pressure over the past year. And that decline has come to an important inflection point. Time to bounce higher? Or will government bonds continue to sink...

Government bonds seem to have entered the summer doldrums as yields in the U.S., Europe, and Japan stay in a narrow range. A meeting this week of the European Central Bank governing council and next...

Bond investors have been fixated on the amount of the Federal Reserve’s asset purchases and the possible impact of the Fed reducing those purchases, removing a price support and perhaps causing...

Many longtime readers know that I’ve remained skeptical about China’s economy for a couple years now. And while the mainstream financial media hasn’t worried much over China’s...