🔥 Premium AI-powered Stock Picks from InvestingPro Now up to 50% OffCLAIM SALE

Three-way run-offs and horse-trading: what happens next in French elections?

Published 06/30/2024, 04:24 PM
Updated 07/01/2024, 11:33 AM
© Reuters. A protesters holds a French national flag as people gather to protest against the French far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally - RN) party, at the Place de la Republique following partial results in the first round of the early 2024 legislative

PARIS (Reuters) -Here's how the second round of France's parliamentary election on July 7 will work and the possible scenarios after official results showed Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party had won Sunday's first round.

HOW DOES IT WORK?

Elections for the 577 seats in France's National Assembly are a two-round process.

In constituencies where no candidate won outright in the first round, the top two candidates, as well as any candidate with more than 12.5% of the total number of registered voters in that constituency, move to a second round.

Whoever gets the most votes in the second round wins the seat. 

The high turnout on Sunday means some 300 constituencies are now facing potential three-way run-offs which, in theory, favour the RN. 

To prevent these three-way run-offs and block the RN, France's centre-right and centre-left politicians have long practiced what they call a "republican front", whereby the third-placed candidate drops out of the race and urges voters to rally behind the second-placed candidate.

All candidates through to the run-off have until Tuesday evening to decide whether to stand down or run in the second round.   

HOW IS IT LOOKING THIS TIME?

Many political leaders gave guidance to candidates and voters on Sunday evening. 

President Emmanuel Macron urged a "wide-ranging rally behind republican and democratic" candidates for the second round, effectively guiding against both the far-right National Rally and the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party.

His former Prime Minister, Edouard Philippe, explicitly called on the candidates from his party to drop out if they were in third position and rally behind candidates from the centre-left to the centre-right, excluding the RN and LFI.

On the left, the Socialist and LFI leaders also called on their third-placed candidates to drop out to block the RN.

The conservative Republicans party, which split ahead of the vote with a small number of its lawmakers joining forces with the RN, has yet to take a stance.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN NOW?

The effectiveness of the "republican front" has weakened over the years, and many voters no longer heed the advice of party leaders.

It is also possible that candidates will refuse to drop out despite guidance from political HQs in Paris. 

© Reuters. A protesters holds a French national flag as people gather to protest against the French far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally - RN) party, at the Place de la Republique following partial results in the first round of the early 2024 legislative elections, in Paris, France, June 30, 2024. REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch

But talks over the next 48 hours will be crucial and could swing the results significantly, potentially deciding whether the RN reaches an outright majority in parliament or not.

That makes the result of the second round extraordinarily hard to predict. Even pollsters have urged caution on their own seat projections. 

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.