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Four keys to watch out for in Biden-Trump debate - TD Cowen

Published 06/26/2024, 09:44 AM
© Reuters

Investing.com -- U.S. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are set to square off in a much-anticipated televised debate on Thursday, with both men key to entice undecided voters prior to the November presidential election.

Age will likely play a central role in the event. The Democratic incumbent Biden, 81, and his Republican challenger Trump, 78, will be the oldest candidates to ever seek the U.S. presidency.

Here are four other keys to watch out for during the event, according to analysts at TD Cowen.

1. Personal over policy

The debate is unlikely to feature a deep dive into policy matters, the analysts argued, adding that Biden and Trump share a well-documented public enmity for one another.

Generally, however, they expect Trump to focus on elevated inflation and border security concerns, while Biden will concentrate on hot-button issues like abortion rights and the future of American democracy.

They noted that incumbent presidents tend to have a "poor track record" in the first debates, although they said that this time could be different as both men are running for a second term.

2. The audience

A quarter of Americans have unfavorable views of Biden and Trump, the analysts flagged, citing a poll from the Pew Research Center.

It is the highest such tally at this stage in the campaign in the last 10 election cycles, with only the 2016 campaign between Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton coming close.

One major possible subset of this cohort are voters for Nikki Haley, who lost to Trump in the Republican primaries. Some of her supporters continued to back her even after she exited the race, although Haley has since said she plans to vote for Trump.

3. Temperaments

The analysts said these disillusioned voters -- or, as they called them, "double haters" -- or could be the major focus for the candidates during the debate because the group's notable size could sway the outcome of the election.

"Temperament, poise and acuity -- or lack thereof" may determine who is perceived as the night's winner, the analysts added.

4. The details

Biden and Trump will meet in Atlanta on Thursday night in a televised debate on CNN that will be moderated by the news channel's journalists Dana Bash and Jake Tapper.

Meanwhile, in a change from older debate formats, there will be no live studio audience in attendance.

Microphones will also be muted except for when it is the candidate's turn to speak. Both men will be at podiums without props or pre-written notes, and will only have a pen, pad of paper, and a bottle of water. No opening statements will be given, but there will be time for closing comments.

"This debate is one of a handful of scheduled catalysts that can alter the general election, which essentially starts Thursday night," the TD Cowen analysts said.

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