🍎 🍕 Less apples, more pizza 🤔 Have you seen Buffett’s portfolio recently?Explore for Free

US dollar skids ahead of inflation data; yen not far from 1990 lows

Published 04/07/2024, 09:19 PM
Updated 04/08/2024, 03:15 PM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
NZD/USD
-
CMWAY
-

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar slid on Monday as investors focused on U.S. inflation data due later this week, while the yen dipped to near 34-year lows, with traders remaining alert for any potential action from Japanese authorities to support the weakening currency.

The greenback fluctuated last week as traders digested a mixed bag of economic data amid a slowdown in services growth followed by unexpectedly strong hiring numbers that prompted the market to pare bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

The dollar index - which tracks the greenback against six other major currencies - was last down 0.2% at 104.12, while U.S. Treasury yields, which reflect interest rate move expectations, pushed higher.

Against the yen, the dollar firmed 0.1% to 151.76, within striking distance of the 34-year peak hit in late March.

The yen's weakness came in the wake of data showing Japanese workers' real wages fell in February for a 23rd consecutive month, suggesting higher prices weighed on consumers' spending appetite.

Inflation-adjusted real wages, a barometer of consumer purchasing power, fell 1.3% in February from a year earlier, data from Japan's Labour ministry showed. It followed a revised decline of 1.1% in January.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Friday authorities will use "all available means" to deal with excessive yen falls, stressing Tokyo's readiness to intervene in the market to prop up the currency.

"Broadly expect more jawboning from Japanese officials. I would not be surprised if the Bank of Japan does not intervene at 152 and the market snaps higher a little bit and then they come in and surprise us" said Amo Sahota, executive director at FX consulting firm Klarity FX in San Francisco.

"So the BOJ could say: we'll let it (dollar/yen) run up a little more. Have you all exhausted yourself now? Here's a lesson for you. So the BOJ could take that approach. For now, though, 152 is capping dollar/yen."

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda addressed the country's parliament on Monday, but gave little away on monetary policy and said he had succeeded in adopting a simpler policy framework.

In the United States, the main focus is on consumer price inflation for March due on Wednesday. Economists expect the headline consumer price index (CPI) to have risen 0.3 on a monthly basis, compared with 0.4% in February, according to a Reuters poll. Core CPI is also seen rising 0.3% for the month of March.

Ahead of the CPI data and after a strong jobs report last Friday, the U.S. rate futures market has reduced the odds of a June rate cut to 49%, down from 58% a week ago, the CME's FedWatch tool showed.

The market has also pared back expectations for the number of rate cuts this year to two, from three to four a few weeks ago, according to LSEG's rate probability app.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee on Monday acknowledged that the U.S. economy remains strong, but wondered how long the Fed can keep monetary policy restrictive.

In an interview with Chicago radio station WBEZ, Goolsbee, who is not a voter this year on the Federal Open Market Committee, said "if you're there too long, the unemployment rate is going to start going up."

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The currency market though showed little reaction to his comments.

In the euro zone, currency investors will be looking to the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy meeting on Thursday. The euro was last up 0.2% at $1.089, while sterling last changed hands at $1.2660, up 0.2%. The base case for the ECB is to hold rates this week and possibly reinforce the possibility of a cut in June. But while the ECB is increasingly confident that inflation is heading back to its 2% target, it has remained vague about further easing. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was up 6.3% at $71,953 after hitting a three-week high of 72,732.59 earlier in the session.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.