Danske Markets

In this year's last and shortened edition of FX Forecast Update we focus on discussing the main forecasts changes since the November version. More broadly, we also highlight five themes we think will...

EUR/SEK - likely to dip on a Riksbank QE exit this week but any decline should prove short-lived due to a fragile housing market.EUR/NOK - sell the cross via 3M bearish seagull and utilise elevated...

All of our three favourite leading indicators point to a moderate slowdown ahead:Home sales growth has declined (p3). Commodity price inflation has weakened (p4). The credit impulse continues to be...

The main events this week will be the Riksbank meeting this Wednesday and the Bank of Japan meeting on Thursday.On the data front, we start the week with a very light day. In the euro area, note that...

The latest IMM data covers the week from 5 December to 12 December 2017To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below:

The busy central bank month continues this week with the Riksbank meeting on Wednesday taking the limelight after Norges Bank took the Scandi focus last week. Even as the Riksbank is expected to say...

Receive SEKFRAMAR19 and pay NOKFRAMAR19 in a spread on relative monetary policy at 113bp. P/L: 127bp/100bp. 6M roll: +5bp.The market expects the Riksbank to 'outhike' the Norges Bank over the next few...

Market Movers ahead An important meeting is coming up in the Swedish Riksbank, as it has to decide on whether to end QE and it is a close call as to what it will chose. Higher wage growth is key if...

Recent economic data releases support our view that the global expansion continues, not least in the euro area, where PMIs have been very strong in Q4.It is too early for markets to price out Brexit...

Following the 'Central Bank Super Thursday' yesterday, we have a relatively light data calendar today.Focus remains also on the EU summit in Brussels, where the Brexit discussions are scheduled to...

We assume that the ECB is set to embark on a very careful exit strategy, ending its QE purchases in December 2018 and a very gradual hiking cycle in Q2 19. Importantly, we expect policy rates to...

We might have seen the end of QE.Close the BEI curve flattener but keep real rate steepeners. EURSEK warming up ahead of the Riksbank policy announcement. To read the entire report Please click on the...

As expected, Norges Bank left rates unchanged and reiterated near-term neutral bias.Meanwhile Norges Bank also signalled an earlier rate hike at end-2018. This is in line with our own forecast. We...

Market movers today We do not expect the ECB to make any changes to its policy stance or forward guidance at the meeting today. Focus will therefore be on news regarding QE composition after the scale...

In our pan-Nordic December survey among FX clients, we asked about the 3M forecasts (12 March) for EUR/SEK, EUR/NOK and EUR/USD. The bonus questions this time were (i) which of the two housing...

As expected, the Fed hiked the target range to 1.25%-1.50% and kept the dot signal broadly unchanged. Evans and Kashkari dissented but they are losing their voting rights next year.We think the Fed...