Market movers today
We do not expect the ECB to make any changes to its policy stance or forward guidance at the meeting today. Focus will therefore be on news regarding QE composition after the scale down and the updated ECB growth and inflation projections, where we expect the new 2020 forecast to show headline inflation close to the target at 1.8% target, in line with the Governing Council's growing urge to move on with monetary policy normalisation (see also ECB Preview - On autopilot for now , 8 December).
Euro area PMIs for December are also released due to be today and we look for a small decline in manufacturing and services PMI to 59.5 and 55.7, respectively, in line with a decline in the leading order-inventory balance.
We also have the Bank of England (BoE) meeting today, where we expect the BoE to stay on hold. It is one of the small meetings without updated projections or a press conference - focus will hence be on the statement and minutes for any hints on the beginning of a hiking cycle.
The two-day EU summit starts today, where EU leaders will have to decide whether sufficient progress has been made to enter phase 2 of the Brexit negotiations. This seems likely given the deal struck between the EU and UK government last week.
In Scandinavia, we also have a busy schedule with November housing data in Sweden and Norges Bank meeting (see next page).
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