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We adjust our ECB rate forecast by adding a 25bp rate cut in January 2012 following the already anticipated 25bp cut in December 2011. This will bring the refinancing rate down to a historically low...
Key news :Market relief did not last long – European bond spreads are widening again.Yesterday’s Italian bond auction did not fail, but the yield was high.US stocks closed with an almost...
GDP growth surged 6.0% q/q AR in Q3, largely reflecting a fast recovery in the wake of the earthquake and tsunami in March. Growth is poised to slow substantially in the coming quarters, but Japan...
Key news * New technocrat government in Italy is welcomed by the market * Risk sentiment has improved and stocks have risen in Asia overnight * Focus today is on the Italian bond auction – and...
Berlusconi kept his word – Monti is taking overBerlusconi kept his word and stepped down on Saturday evening after the austerity package had been passed in the lower house. President Napolitano...
Over the past week, the European debt crisis has increasingly turned into a two-front war for euro area policymakers. They are still attempting to contain the fallout from Greece while probably also...
Next week will see quite a few interesting data releases for the US economy. On Tuesday we expect the retail sales report for October to show slower growth than in the previous month – rising...
Wednesday 9 November is worth remembering: it may have been the day when the eurozone’s debt crisis became acute. Markets’ distrust in Italy’s (mis-) management of its public...
Norway was the fourth richest country in the world measured by GDP per capital (purchasing power parity based) in 2010. During the financial crisis in 2008/09, the Norwegian economy was hit less than...
SummaryExtreme market volatility as Italy is put on the lineSLO standards from Fed published – not as bad as we fearedMarket commentWith Italy now under severe pressure, the stakes have...
Key news Italian bond yields back below 7%, but only because of heavy ECB buying. Standard and Poor’s mistakenly announce that France has been downgraded fuelling concerns about France. 10y...
For details of our strategy, see Trade Recommendation: CZK: Damned if you do and damned if you don’t. We now close our strategy for a total profit of 1.15%. See the sidebar for details on...
Next week will see the release of Czech, Hungarian and Romanian third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) numbers. While the global markets’ focus is firmly on the turns and twists of the...
China’s exports continued to decline in October, while imports appear to be firming slightly. In particular, a significant drop in exports to Europe weighed on China’s exports in October,...
Key news In Italy the vote on the austerity bill was moved forward to Sunday after government bond yields reached new euro era highs yesterday. Greece once again postponed the announcement of a new...
In this document we provide an update of our global growth forecasts. The world economy is increasingly decoupling, with the US recovering, China expected to recover and the euro area heading for...