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China outlookOur view. We look for Q1 to be the low point in the Chinese businend overall USD weaknessss cycle and expect a moderate recovery from Q2. Leading indicators point to some rays of light...
Market movers today Today's key event will be the Bank of England meeting. Amid the ongoing Brexit uncertainty, we expect the Bank of England to be on hold until November. The new forecasts are likely...
Market movers today In the euro area, German factory orders for December will be in focus after last months' marked declines. Markets will especially keep an eye on whether orders from car...
Market movers today In the UK, the PMI services index for January will give us a first glimpse into how the economy started out in 2019. Amid the ongoing Brexit uncertainty, we think the index will be...
Implied FX volatility continues to decline and both EUR/NOK and NOK/SEK impl. vol. now trade at the lowest levels since 2014.Strategically, we remain bullish NOK and recommend to add long NOK/SEK...
Market movers today We start off a relatively quiet week with euro area Sentix investor confidence. The index has been on a steady downward trend since August and at -1.5% remains at its lowest level...
Q4 18 GDP growth of 0.2% q/q confirmed a lacklustre finish to 2018 and macro data continues to point to a tough start for the euro area economy in 2019 . PMIs eased further in January to the lowest...
Market Movers aheadIn the US, the flow of economic data releases begins again after the shutdown with trade data and the ISM non-manufacturing index. Keep an eye on FOMC speeches for hints on the...
Top-level trade talks end on a positive note - a deal is in sight as soon as March Charges against Huawei underline tensions in tech war - how far will the US go? Chinese PMI points to weakness -...
The top-level negotiations in Washington ended with very positive statements from both sides. We see this as a sign that enough progress has been made to make a deal.The next thing to look out for is...
Big turn by the Fed - what about the Riksbank?Covered bonds: stable short-end conducive to carry/roll trades - buy 3Y covered bonds in ASW spreads. Riksbank likely to wind down bond...
Market movers today Markets are set to digest the results of the US-China trade negotiations this morning after the two sides agreed to continue talks in February. On the data front, we have some...
After a dismal end to 2018, parts of the global economy are showing rays of light. In both the US and China, manufacturing PMI rose slightly in January compared with December. Hence, despite the...
Market movers today The US-China high-level trade talks continue today. Look out for any statements from the two sides tonight when the negotiations conclude. We believe we will see some progress in...
As widely expected, at the meeting the Fed did not raise its target range, which remains at 2.25-2.50%. More interesting was the statement filled with changes, which reflects what we heard in speeches...
Market movers today Today, the US-China trade top-level negotiations begin. The US prosecution of Huawei has added some uncertainty to the equation but we believe the US and China will still aim to...
Against our expectation, the so-called Brady amendment passed by a small majority (317-301). The Brady amendment says the House of Commons can support May's Brexit deal, but that the backstop has to...