Danske Markets

Major forecasters have lowered their Q4 15 forecasts for non-OPEC supply and in particular supply from the Americas markedly over the past six months. In the same period, forecasts for world demand...

An increase in the US ISM index in May underpins the expectation that the economy is rebounding into Q2. The details of the report were also good with the second increase in new orders index in a...

Historically, one of the most important factors for changes in Norges Bank's (NB) expected rate path has been the NOK via the I44-index. A marginal analysis suggests that a 1% change in NB's...

Investors ceased to cover EUR shorts and started to add USD longs again in the week to 26 May, thus ending the move seen from late April to early May when speculators appeared to shred the short...

This week the scorecard recommends buying NZD, NOK and JPY, while selling CHF, CAD and EUR. Last week's signals resulted in a 0.7% loss. Especially the short NOK and AUD were expensive, while the...

Market Movers We kick off with final PMI manufacturing data for the euro area. The most interesting new information are the first estimates for Spain and Italy. Overall euro-area PMI is expected to...

Bond yields have been driven by ECB flows in 2015 and it seems evident that fundamentals have had a limited effect in market developments so far. However, with an expected sharp rise in inflation in...

In Sweden, the week ahead contains only second-tier data, inter alia, PMI for both manufacturing (Monday at 09.30 CEST) and services (Wednesday at 09.30 CEST) industry. In Sweden we favour the...

Market movers aheadNegotiations between Greece and three creditor countries progress slowly but deadline for avoiding default now appears to be extended until mid-June.We expect no new signals on...

A series of events have turned the tide and restored investors' appetite for the US dollar, which has seen a strong turnaround. According to our models, relative rates (higher US interest rates) and a...

We believe the Fed is close to ticking all the boxes it needs for lift-off. Slack in the labour market has been reduced substantially and is not far from being fully used up. Wage inflation is...

We do not expect a policy change or new signals at the upcoming ECB meeting. Focus will be on the following topics. PSPP implementation - CSuré already pre-announced summer front-loading...

We expect non-farm payrolls of 220,000 in May, which is almost in line with the April reading. It is especially the job creation in the service sector that drives our forecast up, while manufacturing...

Market MoversIn the euro area we expect M3 growth to have increased to 4.9% y/y in April, from 4.6% y/y in March. For the first time since 2012, we forecast a non-negative annual growth rate in credit...

Several factors speak in favour of Swedish interest rates in general and the 5y segment in particular. We see reasons to buy Swedish 5y bonds in spread against Germany (or receive SEK vs EUR). It is...

Market MoversThe euro-area May confidence indicators are released today and we do not expect any surprises with confidence virtually unchanged since April.In the US initial jobless claims have trended...