In Sweden, the week ahead contains only second-tier data, inter alia, PMI for both manufacturing (Monday at 09.30 CEST) and services (Wednesday at 09.30 CEST) industry.
In Sweden we favour the monetary policy sensitive 5y segment of the SGB curve. The inflation outlook in Sweden is still very benign and the money market curve remains very steep in a situation where influential Riksbank members like Jansson have stepped-up the dovish rethoric recently.
In Norway the main event will undoubtedly be the results of the latest survey of Norges Bank's regional network. Economic developments over the past year have been dominated by the slowdown in oil-related industries, and signals from the sector lead us to believe that the outlook for these industries has deteriorated further since February.
We like the mid segment on the Norwegian government bond curve. We specifically recommended to buy the May '21 3.75% against DBR 3.25% Jul '21 at the auction last week, as we look for a rate cut and a dovish Norges Bank at the monetary policy meeting in three weeks. The auction attracted good interest.
In Denmark the most important release is the May currency reserves figures. The May figures will probably reveal that intervention continued in May given that EUR/DK has traded well above the central parity at 7.46038. However, note that EUR/DKK is now below the central parity and that intervention has now probably come to a halt for now.
We continue to believe that the money market curve remains far too steep in Denmark and that the market price in rate hikes too early and too fast.
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