Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC

Like China, manufacturers in the US report feeling better about manufacturing. Also like China, this is nothing new. The ISM Manufacturing PMI was estimated to have increased to 54.7 in December, up...

China’s official manufacturing PMI fell just slightly for December 2016, after rising for November to the highest since mid-2014. The overall index pulled back to 51.4 from 51.7 the previous...

Canada’s economy remains the distinct enigma of the developed world, where the binary business cycle breakdown is perhaps most conspicuous. When oil prices first crashed to end 2014 and start...

On April 27, 2007, the People’s Bank of China announced that it was raising the statutory ratio for required reserves by 50 bps to 11%. The Chinese had allowed their currency exchange rate to...

At one point in time not all that long ago, basic economics (small “e”) ruled central banking. There was really no other choice, as out of necessity bred change and understanding. The...

When Ben Bernanke sat down with 60 Minutes for an interview in March 2009, it was then the first time in 20 years a sitting Federal Reserve Chairman had appeared on TV one on one. The timing was not...

Even if you believe that the economy we find today is irrelevant to one that will result from a range of better policies under a Trump administration, you still have a timing problem. I fully believe...

China’s big problem can be succinctly described as where Economics met economics. Capital “E” Economics pushed authorities to over-financialize China in response to the Great...

The Chinese have been undergoing quite a bit of stress lately, with markets including stocks more likely to be in turmoil than not. In fixed income, the Finance Ministry was slightly shaken by a...

The FOMC voted to raise rates yesterday and the dollar is up, therefore the vote caused the dollar to be up? It’s a classic case of ex hoc ergo propter hoc (after this, because of this), the...

Last December, the Federal Reserve confirmed that it thought its monetary task was nearing completion but under conditions that’s its own data showed were nothing like recovery. In simple terms,...

When US exports were reported a few months ago to have risen (slightly) in August 2016, it was widely expected that that increase was the start of many to follow. It was, after all, the first positive...

Chinese industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment were all taken as better or improving. Industrial production, for example, was 6.2% in November 2016, up from 6.1% in both...

When the estimates for factor orders were released earlier this month, there was an unusual pattern for the revision of September’s preliminary figures. Subsequent data suggested that factory...

Economic Reports Scorecard The incoming economic data has improved since the last update with a plethora of reports coming in better than expected. This is the longest run of better than expected data...

China’s trade statistics were improved in November, further fueling the global “reflation” dreams. Imports rose 6.7% year-over-year, the second increase in the past four months...