Acting Man

Fun with Positioning and SentimentLast week we discussed the gold sector “conundrum” – the odd fact that there is apparently quite strong demand for gold despite a macroeconomic...

Last week, the USD gold price was pushed rather unceremoniously off its perch above the $1300 level, where it had been comfortably ensconced all year after its usual seasonal rally around the turn of...

A Movie We Have Seen Before – Repatriation Effect?There was a sizable increase in the year-on-year growth rate of the true US money supply TMS-2 between February and March. Note that you would...

Effects of Monetary Pumping on the Real WorldAs long time readers know, we are looking at the economy through the lens of Austrian capital and monetary theory (see here for a backgrounder on capital...

Battle Over Trendline Support ContinuesHere is a brief update of our recent series of observations on the stock market. First of all, the SPX has just tested its major trendline for the third time...

A “Typical” Correction? A Narrative Fail May Be in StoreObviously, assorted crash analogs have by now gone out of the window – we already noted that the market was late if it was to...

SPX, Quo Vadis? Considering the Crash Potential In view of the fact that the stock market action has gotten a bit out of hand again this week, we are providing a brief update of charts we have...

The chart formation built in the course of the early February sell-off and subsequent rebound continues to look ominous, so we are closely watching the proceedings. There are now numerous new...

Speculators Throw the TowelOver the past several years we have seen a few amazing moves in futures positioning in a number of commodities, such as e.g. in crude oil, where the by far largest...

Lord, Grant us Chastity and Temperance… Just Not Yet!Most fund managers are in an unenviable situation nowadays (particularly if they have a long only mandate). On the one hand, they would love...

A Warning Signal from Market InternalsReaders may recall that we looked at various market internals after the sudden sell-offs in August 2015 and January 2016 in order to find out if any of them had...

Fibonacci Retracements Following the recent market swoon, we were interested to see how far the rebound would go. Fibonacci retracement levels are a tried and true technical tool for estimating...

The Q1 2018 meeting of the Incrementum Fund’s Advisory Board took place on January 24, about one week before the recent market turmoil began. In a way it is funny that this group of contrarians...

On January 31 we wrote about the unprecedented levels – for a stock market index that is – the weekly and monthly RSI of the Dow Jones Industrial Average had reached (see: “Too Much...

Rydex Ratios Go Bonkers, Bears Are Dying OffFor many years we have heard that the poor polar bears were in danger of dying out due to global warming. A fake photograph of one of the magnificent...

The Mother of All Blow-OffsWe didn’t really plan on writing about investor sentiment again so soon, but last week a few articles in the financial press caught our eye and after reviewing the...