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U.S. Dallas Fed PCE
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Latest Release
Aug 30, 2024
Actual1.70%
Previous1.80%
In any given month, the rate of inflation in a price index like the Consumer Price Index or Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) can be thought of as a weighted average, or mean, of the rates of change in the prices of all the goods and services that make up the index. Calculating the trimmed-mean PCE inflation rate for a given month involves looking at the price changes for each of the individual components of personal consumption expenditures. The individual price changes are sorted in ascending order from fell the most to rose the most, and a certain fraction of the most extreme observations at both ends of the spectrum are like a skaters best and worst marks thrown out, or trimmed. The inflation rate is then calculated as a weighted average of the remaining components. For the series presented here, 19.4 percent of the weight from the lower tail and 25.4 percent of the weight in the upper tail are trimmed. Those proportions have been chosen, based on historical data, to give the best fit between the trimmed-mean inflation rate and proxies for the true core PCE inflation rate. The resulting inflation measure has been shown to outperform the more conventional excluding food and energy measure as a gauge of core inflation.
| Release Date | Time | Actual | Forecast | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2025 (Jan) | 09:00 | 2.80% | |||
| Aug 30, 2024 (Jul) | 08:00 | 1.70% | 1.80% | ||
| Jul 26, 2024 (Jun) | 08:00 | 1.70% | 2.60% | ||
| Jun 28, 2024 (May) | 08:00 | 1.40% | 2.70% | ||
| May 31, 2024 (Apr) | 08:00 | 2.70% | 3.30% | ||
| Apr 26, 2024 (Mar) | 08:00 | 2.90% | 3.40% |
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Natural Rate, 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE, LT Trend Of Real US Private GDP
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There is much fear of inflation rising with some claiming it is beginning to soar. The 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE from the Dallas Fed is quite tame and has been so for some time. No inflation is good in my...
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Last week, I discussed the views of 4 Federal Reserve presidents to discern their current interest rate policy. This week’s column finishes that analysis. I would like to offer a personal thanks...
Dallas Fed PCE Discussion
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