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Fed Rate Monitor Tool
Fed Interest Rate Decision May 07, 2025 02:00PM ET
5
Weeks
0
Days
22
Hours
56
Minutes
Our Fed rate monitor calculator is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which tend to signal the markets’ expectations regarding the possibility of changes to US interest rates based on Fed monetary policy. The tool allows users to calculate the likelihood of an upcoming Fed rate hike or cut.
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
May 07, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.715
4.00 - 4.25
16.1%
4.25 - 4.50
83.9%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 16.1% | 12.4% | 11.2% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 83.9% | 87.6% | 88.8% |
Updated: Apr 01, 2025 02:35PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jun 18, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.790
3.75 - 4.00
11.8%
4.00 - 4.25
66.0%
4.25 - 4.50
22.1%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 11.8% | 8.8% | 6.9% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 66.0% | 65.5% | 59.3% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 22.1% | 25.8% | 33.8% |
Updated: Apr 01, 2025 02:35PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jul 30, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.905
3.50 - 3.75
7.9%
3.75 - 4.00
47.8%
4.00 - 4.25
36.9%
4.25 - 4.50
7.5%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 7.9% | 5.4% | 3.1% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 47.8% | 43.9% | 30.4% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 36.9% | 40.9% | 47.8% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 7.5% | 9.8% | 18.6% |
Updated: Apr 01, 2025 02:35PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Sep 17, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.135
3.25 - 3.50
5.5%
3.50 - 3.75
35.8%
3.75 - 4.00
40.2%
4.00 - 4.25
16.3%
4.25 - 4.50
2.2%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 35.8% | 30.8% | 19.2% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 40.2% | 41.9% | 40.7% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 16.3% | 20.4% | 30.7% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 2.2% | 3.3% | 7.7% |
Updated: Apr 01, 2025 02:35PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Oct 29, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.240
3.00 - 3.25
2.3%
3.25 - 3.50
18.2%
3.50 - 3.75
37.6%
3.75 - 4.00
30.1%
4.00 - 4.25
10.4%
4.25 - 4.50
1.3%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 18.2% | 15.0% | 7.6% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 37.6% | 35.5% | 26.3% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 30.1% | 32.8% | 37.3% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 10.4% | 13.2% | 23.0% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 1.3% | 1.9% | 5.1% |
Updated: Apr 01, 2025 02:35PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Dec 10, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.420
2.75 - 3.00
1.1%
3.00 - 3.25
10.2%
3.25 - 3.50
27.9%
3.50 - 3.75
33.9%
3.75 - 4.00
20.3%
4.00 - 4.25
5.9%
4.25 - 4.50
0.7%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 10.2% | 8.2% | 3.9% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 27.9% | 25.2% | 16.3% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 33.9% | 34.2% | 31.5% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 20.3% | 23.1% | 30.7% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 5.9% | 7.6% | 14.7% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.7% |
Updated: Apr 01, 2025 02:35PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jan 26, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.465
2.50 - 2.75
0.3%
2.75 - 3.00
3.2%
3.00 - 3.25
14.2%
3.25 - 3.50
29.2%
3.50 - 3.75
30.9%
3.75 - 4.00
17.1%
4.00 - 4.25
4.7%
4.25 - 4.50
0.5%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 14.2% | 12.0% | 6.0% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 29.2% | 27.2% | 18.9% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 30.9% | 31.7% | 31.3% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 17.1% | 19.6% | 27.9% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 4.7% | 6.1% | 12.6% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 2.3% |
Updated: Apr 01, 2025 02:35PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Mar 18, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.545
2.50 - 2.75
1.2%
2.75 - 3.00
6.6%
3.00 - 3.25
18.8%
3.25 - 3.50
29.7%
3.50 - 3.75
26.6%
3.75 - 4.00
13.2%
4.00 - 4.25
3.4%
4.25 - 4.50
0.3%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.4% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 18.8% | 16.1% | 9.8% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 29.7% | 28.4% | 22.6% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 26.6% | 28.5% | 30.3% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 13.2% | 16.0% | 23.4% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 3.4% | 4.7% | 9.6% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.6% |
Updated: Apr 01, 2025 02:35PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Apr 29, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.590
2.25 - 2.50
0.2%
2.50 - 2.75
1.9%
2.75 - 3.00
8.2%
3.00 - 3.25
20.2%
3.25 - 3.50
29.3%
3.50 - 3.75
24.9%
3.75 - 4.00
12.0%
4.00 - 4.25
3.0%
4.25 - 4.50
0.3%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 8.2% | 6.9% | 3.0% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 20.2% | 18.2% | 10.9% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 29.3% | 28.4% | 23.2% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 24.9% | 26.3% | 29.7% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 12.0% | 14.1% | 22.2% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 3.0% | 4.0% | 8.9% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.5% |
Updated: Apr 01, 2025 02:35PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jun 17, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.570
2.25 - 2.50
0.2%
2.50 - 2.75
1.7%
2.75 - 3.00
7.5%
3.00 - 3.25
19.0%
3.25 - 3.50
28.4%
3.50 - 3.75
25.3%
3.75 - 4.00
13.4%
4.00 - 4.25
4.0%
4.25 - 4.50
0.6%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.75 - 2.00 | — | 0.0% | — |
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 7.5% | 7.3% | 3.6% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 19.0% | 18.5% | 11.8% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 28.4% | 28.3% | 23.7% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 25.3% | 25.9% | 29.2% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 13.4% | 13.7% | 21.2% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 4.0% | 3.9% | 8.3% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.4% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 0.0% | — | — |
Updated: Apr 01, 2025 02:35PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jul 29, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.605
2.25 - 2.50
0.3%
2.50 - 2.75
2.1%
2.75 - 3.00
8.3%
3.00 - 3.25
19.6%
3.25 - 3.50
28.2%
3.50 - 3.75
24.6%
3.75 - 4.00
12.7%
4.00 - 4.25
3.7%
4.25 - 4.50
0.6%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50 - 1.75 | — | — | — |
| 1.75 - 2.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 8.3% | 8.0% | 4.2% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 19.6% | 19.2% | 12.6% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 28.2% | 28.2% | 24.1% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 24.6% | 25.1% | 28.6% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 12.7% | 13.1% | 20.4% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 3.7% | 3.6% | 7.9% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.3% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 0.0% | — | — |
Updated: Apr 01, 2025 02:35PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Sep 16, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.620
2.25 - 2.50
0.4%
2.50 - 2.75
2.3%
2.75 - 3.00
8.6%
3.00 - 3.25
19.9%
3.25 - 3.50
28.0%
3.50 - 3.75
24.2%
3.75 - 4.00
12.4%
4.00 - 4.25
3.6%
4.25 - 4.50
0.5%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.25 - 1.50 | — | — | — |
| 1.50 - 1.75 | — | — | — |
| 1.75 - 2.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 8.6% | 8.4% | 4.4% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 19.9% | 19.5% | 13.0% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 28.0% | 28.1% | 24.2% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 24.2% | 24.7% | 28.4% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 12.4% | 12.8% | 20.0% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 3.6% | 3.5% | 7.7% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.2% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 0.0% | — | — |
Updated: Apr 01, 2025 02:35PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Oct 28, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.625
2.25 - 2.50
0.3%
2.50 - 2.75
2.1%
2.75 - 3.00
8.0%
3.00 - 3.25
18.8%
3.25 - 3.50
27.3%
3.50 - 3.75
24.5%
3.75 - 4.00
13.5%
4.00 - 4.25
4.4%
4.25 - 4.50
0.8%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50 - 1.75 | — | — | — |
| 1.75 - 2.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 8.0% | 7.8% | 4.1% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 18.8% | 18.5% | 12.2% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 27.3% | 27.3% | 23.2% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 24.5% | 25.0% | 28.0% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 13.5% | 13.9% | 20.7% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 4.4% | 4.4% | 8.8% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.8% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 0.0% | — | — |
Updated: Apr 01, 2025 02:35PM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Dec 09, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.760
2.00 - 2.25
0.2%
2.25 - 2.50
1.3%
2.50 - 2.75
5.4%
2.75 - 3.00
14.1%
3.00 - 3.25
23.6%
3.25 - 3.50
25.7%
3.50 - 3.75
18.4%
3.75 - 4.00
8.4%
4.00 - 4.25
2.4%
4.25 - 4.50
0.4%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.25 - 1.50 | — | — | — |
| 1.50 - 1.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1.75 - 2.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 5.4% | 5.3% | 2.7% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 14.1% | 13.8% | 8.6% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 23.6% | 23.4% | 18.4% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 25.7% | 26.0% | 25.9% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 18.4% | 18.8% | 23.9% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 8.4% | 8.6% | 14.1% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 2.4% | 2.3% | 4.9% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 0.0% | — | — |
Updated: Apr 01, 2025 02:35PM EDT
Fed Fund Rates
News
Dollar continues to rebound after Fed meeting; sterling slips
By Investing.com - Mar 21, 2025
2
Investing.com - The U.S. dollar rose Friday, continuing its recent rebound after the Federal Reserve saw no immediate need to cut interest rates. At 05:25 ET (09:25 GMT), the Dollar Index, which...
Gold prices fall from record highs as dollar firms on easing rate cut bets
By Investing.com - Mar 21, 2025
Investing.com-- Gold prices fell in Asian trade on Friday, extending a fall from recent record highs amid pressure from a stronger dollar as traders bet that U.S. interest rates will remain unchanged...
Asia FX weakens, dollar strong amid speculation over rate cuts, tariffs
By Investing.com - Mar 21, 2025
Investing.com-- Most Asian currencies weakened on Friday, while the dollar firmed as traders bet on no U.S. interest rate cuts in the near-term, while fears of higher tariffs and slower growth dented...
Analysis
Gold’s Breakout Year: Is $5,000 the Next Stop?
By Kathy Lien - Apr 01, 2025
1
A Red-Hot Start to the Year Gold is on fire. If you haven’t been watching the charts, you’re missing out on one of the strongest moves of the year. Since January, gold has surged nearly 20%, and...
S&P 500: 3-Step Playbook to Follow as Index Fails 200-DMA Test
By Lance Roberts - Apr 01, 2025
1
In last week’s post, “Is the correction over?” we wrote about the S&P 500's potential for a rally back to the 200-DMA. However, the failure of that test increased short-term concerns. As we noted...
Gold Vs. US Dollar: Can the Precious Metal Replace the World's Reserve Currency?
By Julia Khandoshko - Mar 31, 2025
1
Global central banks have been ramping up their gold reserves at an unprecedented pace. Since 2022, this trend has only accelerated, with gold holdings now surpassing the share of euros in global...