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Fed Rate Monitor Tool
Fed Interest Rate Decision May 07, 2025 02:00PM ET
5
Weeks
2
Days
8
Hours
54
Minutes
Our Fed rate monitor calculator is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which tend to signal the markets’ expectations regarding the possibility of changes to US interest rates based on Fed monetary policy. The tool allows users to calculate the likelihood of an upcoming Fed rate hike or cut.
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
May 07, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.715
4.00 - 4.25
16.7%
4.25 - 4.50
83.3%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 16.7% | 15.7% | 12.1% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 83.3% | 84.3% | 87.9% |
Updated: Mar 31, 2025 04:45AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jun 18, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.795
3.75 - 4.00
12.8%
4.00 - 4.25
67.9%
4.25 - 4.50
19.2%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 12.8% | 11.7% | 8.3% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 67.9% | 66.9% | 64.4% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 19.2% | 21.4% | 27.2% |
Updated: Mar 31, 2025 04:45AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jul 30, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.915
3.50 - 3.75
8.8%
3.75 - 4.00
50.5%
4.00 - 4.25
34.6%
4.25 - 4.50
6.1%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 8.8% | 6.7% | 3.7% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 50.5% | 43.6% | 33.5% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 34.6% | 40.6% | 47.7% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 6.1% | 9.1% | 15.0% |
Updated: Mar 31, 2025 04:45AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Sep 17, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.150
3.25 - 3.50
6.0%
3.50 - 3.75
37.2%
3.75 - 4.00
39.7%
4.00 - 4.25
15.2%
4.25 - 4.50
1.9%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.3% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 37.2% | 29.0% | 21.8% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 39.7% | 41.8% | 42.1% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 15.2% | 21.6% | 27.9% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 1.9% | 3.6% | 5.9% |
Updated: Mar 31, 2025 04:45AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Oct 29, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.255
3.00 - 3.25
2.4%
3.25 - 3.50
18.4%
3.50 - 3.75
38.2%
3.75 - 4.00
29.9%
4.00 - 4.25
9.9%
4.25 - 4.50
1.2%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 18.4% | 13.4% | 9.2% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 38.2% | 33.8% | 29.0% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 29.9% | 34.2% | 37.1% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 9.9% | 14.8% | 20.1% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 1.2% | 2.2% | 3.8% |
Updated: Mar 31, 2025 04:45AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Dec 10, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.430
2.75 - 3.00
1.2%
3.00 - 3.25
10.4%
3.25 - 3.50
28.4%
3.50 - 3.75
34.0%
3.75 - 4.00
19.9%
4.00 - 4.25
5.5%
4.25 - 4.50
0.6%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 10.4% | 7.3% | 4.5% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 28.4% | 23.2% | 18.0% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 34.0% | 34.0% | 32.6% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 19.9% | 24.9% | 29.5% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 5.5% | 8.8% | 12.8% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.1% |
Updated: Mar 31, 2025 04:45AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jan 26, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.480
2.50 - 2.75
0.2%
2.75 - 3.00
3.0%
3.00 - 3.25
14.0%
3.25 - 3.50
29.5%
3.50 - 3.75
31.2%
3.75 - 4.00
17.0%
4.00 - 4.25
4.5%
4.25 - 4.50
0.5%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 14.0% | 10.4% | 6.9% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 29.5% | 25.4% | 20.6% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 31.2% | 32.2% | 32.1% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 17.0% | 21.7% | 26.6% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 4.5% | 7.2% | 11.0% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.7% |
Updated: Mar 31, 2025 04:45AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Mar 18, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.550
2.50 - 2.75
1.0%
2.75 - 3.00
6.0%
3.00 - 3.25
18.2%
3.25 - 3.50
30.0%
3.50 - 3.75
27.4%
3.75 - 4.00
13.7%
4.00 - 4.25
3.4%
4.25 - 4.50
0.3%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.6% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 18.2% | 14.8% | 10.5% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 30.0% | 27.4% | 23.6% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 27.4% | 29.1% | 30.6% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 13.7% | 17.5% | 22.5% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 3.4% | 5.4% | 8.5% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.3% |
Updated: Mar 31, 2025 04:45AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Apr 29, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.590
2.25 - 2.50
0.2%
2.50 - 2.75
1.7%
2.75 - 3.00
7.8%
3.00 - 3.25
19.9%
3.25 - 3.50
29.6%
3.50 - 3.75
25.3%
3.75 - 4.00
12.1%
4.00 - 4.25
3.0%
4.25 - 4.50
0.3%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 19.9% | 16.4% | 13.6% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 29.6% | 27.6% | 25.3% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 25.3% | 27.6% | 28.7% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 12.1% | 15.9% | 19.2% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 3.0% | 4.8% | 6.8% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.0% |
Updated: Mar 31, 2025 04:45AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jun 17, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.570
2.25 - 2.50
0.2%
2.50 - 2.75
1.6%
2.75 - 3.00
7.3%
3.00 - 3.25
18.9%
3.25 - 3.50
28.7%
3.50 - 3.75
25.7%
3.75 - 4.00
13.3%
4.00 - 4.25
3.8%
4.25 - 4.50
0.5%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.75 - 2.00 | — | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 18.9% | 18.3% | 16.5% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 28.7% | 27.6% | 26.1% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 25.7% | 25.6% | 26.3% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 13.3% | 14.0% | 16.1% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.3% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 0.0% | — | — |
Updated: Mar 31, 2025 04:45AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jul 29, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.605
2.25 - 2.50
0.3%
2.50 - 2.75
2.0%
2.75 - 3.00
8.1%
3.00 - 3.25
19.5%
3.25 - 3.50
28.5%
3.50 - 3.75
24.9%
3.75 - 4.00
12.6%
4.00 - 4.25
3.5%
4.25 - 4.50
0.5%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50 - 1.75 | — | — | — |
| 1.75 - 2.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.4% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 19.5% | 19.0% | 17.2% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 28.5% | 27.5% | 26.1% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 24.9% | 24.8% | 25.6% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 12.6% | 13.3% | 15.4% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 0.0% | — | — |
Updated: Mar 31, 2025 04:45AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Sep 16, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.620
2.25 - 2.50
0.3%
2.50 - 2.75
2.2%
2.75 - 3.00
8.4%
3.00 - 3.25
19.8%
3.25 - 3.50
28.4%
3.50 - 3.75
24.5%
3.75 - 4.00
12.3%
4.00 - 4.25
3.5%
4.25 - 4.50
0.5%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.25 - 1.50 | — | — | — |
| 1.50 - 1.75 | — | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1.75 - 2.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.7% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 19.8% | 19.2% | 17.5% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 28.4% | 27.4% | 26.1% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 24.5% | 24.4% | 25.3% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 12.3% | 13.0% | 15.0% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.9% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 0.0% | — | — |
Updated: Mar 31, 2025 04:45AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Oct 28, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.625
2.25 - 2.50
0.3%
2.50 - 2.75
2.0%
2.75 - 3.00
7.9%
3.00 - 3.25
18.8%
3.25 - 3.50
27.6%
3.50 - 3.75
24.8%
3.75 - 4.00
13.5%
4.00 - 4.25
4.3%
4.25 - 4.50
0.7%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.25 - 1.50 | — | — | — |
| 1.50 - 1.75 | — | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1.75 - 2.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 18.8% | 18.3% | 16.6% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 27.6% | 26.6% | 25.3% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 24.8% | 24.7% | 25.4% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 13.5% | 14.1% | 16.0% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.8% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 0.0% | — | — |
Updated: Mar 31, 2025 04:45AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Dec 09, 2026 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
96.760
2.00 - 2.25
0.2%
2.25 - 2.50
1.3%
2.50 - 2.75
5.3%
2.75 - 3.00
14.0%
3.00 - 3.25
23.7%
3.25 - 3.50
26.1%
3.50 - 3.75
18.5%
3.75 - 4.00
8.3%
4.00 - 4.25
2.3%
4.25 - 4.50
0.4%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 - 1.25 | — | — | — |
| 1.25 - 1.50 | — | — | — |
| 1.50 - 1.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1.75 - 2.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 2.25 - 2.50 | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% |
| 2.50 - 2.75 | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 14.0% | 13.8% | 12.5% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 23.7% | 22.9% | 21.5% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 26.1% | 25.6% | 25.3% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 18.5% | 18.8% | 20.1% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 8.3% | 8.7% | 10.3% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.2% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 0.0% | — | — |
Updated: Mar 31, 2025 04:45AM EDT
Fed Fund Rates
News
Dollar continues to rebound after Fed meeting; sterling slips
By Investing.com - Mar 21, 2025
2
Investing.com - The U.S. dollar rose Friday, continuing its recent rebound after the Federal Reserve saw no immediate need to cut interest rates. At 05:25 ET (09:25 GMT), the Dollar Index, which...
Gold prices fall from record highs as dollar firms on easing rate cut bets
By Investing.com - Mar 21, 2025
Investing.com-- Gold prices fell in Asian trade on Friday, extending a fall from recent record highs amid pressure from a stronger dollar as traders bet that U.S. interest rates will remain unchanged...
Asia FX weakens, dollar strong amid speculation over rate cuts, tariffs
By Investing.com - Mar 21, 2025
Investing.com-- Most Asian currencies weakened on Friday, while the dollar firmed as traders bet on no U.S. interest rate cuts in the near-term, while fears of higher tariffs and slower growth dented...
Analysis
Why Gold Stocks Could Soar This Spring: Seasonality, Record Profits, and Breakouts
By Adam Hamilton - Mar 29, 2025
2
Interest in gold stocks is really mounting, fueled by gold’s record-shattering monster upleg. Traders are rediscovering this high-potential contrarian sector, just driving major gold stocks to a...
Stagflationary Risks Will Slow the Fed Down
By Claudia Sahm - Mar 28, 2025
10
The parade of Fed speakers this week affirmed key messages from the Fed meeting last week: uncertainty about the outlook, some pessimism about inflation and growth this year with risks skewed toward...
Bitcoin: Can Whales Keep Support Intact as Short-Term Sellers Pile on Pressure?
By Günay Caymaz - Mar 28, 2025
Selling pressure in the crypto market increased due to Trump's tariff plans and economic data. Large investors bought 129,000 BTC in March, supporting price stability. Bitcoin’s movement...