Natural gas futures price has completed the formation of double bottom of the down trend during this season. El Nino's effect on the weather caused an eruption of continuous announcements for a warmer than normal every other day seems to believe that the cold weather has vanished completely this year. But the reality seems to be a little different this year. The cold season arrival seems to be extended this year and the expectation of colder than normal weather announcement may be expected from middle of the March, 2017 to April, 2017. If the cold weather retreats in the week of March 6th , 2017, natural gas futures price will see some more gaps to be filled up very soon which were created during its downward journey.
The last gap created on February 26th, 2017 has been filled up successfully within 2 trading sessions, just after submission of my analysis. Since then movement of natural gas futures price has shown a strong price reversal and consolidated for the whole week ended on March 3rd , 2017 with a closing price of $2.825. Though, a sharp downward move was there after the announcement of natural gas inventory on March 2nd , 2017 but immediate sharp reversal confirmed the strength of an uptrend. After that natural gas futures price consolidated well till the closing on March 3rd, 2017. Finally, a gap-up opening at $2.912 on March 5th, 2017 also seems to confirm a bullish uptrend in the weeks ahead as I predicted in my last analysis.
I emphasized on possibilities of filling up of all the gaps, created while the natural gas was on a downward move, only by gap ups in my analysis. After filling up the last gap, created on February 26th , 2017 immediately within two trading sessions, natural gas futures price once again have succeeded to fill up the second last gap today with a gap up opening on March 5th, 2017 and still seems to maintain its strength on February 6th , 2017.
Filling up of gaps and as well as the realization of the predicted moves can well be seen on March 6th, 2017 at 13:00:00 in the same chart pattern created by me on February 17th, 2017.
On analysis of natural gas futures price in different time zones, I find the natural gas futures price to trade in a range from $2.748 to $3.549. Any unexpected change in climate may cause an unexpected move on either side of this range which will definitely provide a good opportunity for creating a fresh position for a short term.
Disclaimer: This analysis is purely based on the technical observations. I do not have any position in natural gas. One can create position in natural gas at his/her own risk.