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Previous session overview
On Monday, the dollar was taken lower against the euro by familiar foes - weak U.S. housing data and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. US new home sales fell by 4.7% in December.
The euro appreciated against U.S. dollar yesterday as the single currency tested offers around 8the US$ 1.476. In euro zone news, the December M3 money supply expanded 11.5% y/y, down from November's 12.2% pace and below forecasts 5 level and was supported around the $1.4660 level.
In eurozone news, the December M3 money supply expanded 11.5% y/y, down from November's 12.2% pace and below forecasts.
The British pound moved higher against U.S. dollar yesterday as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.9875 level and was supporting around the $1.9725 level. Cable reached its highest level since 2 January.
The Australian dollar moved higher against the U.S. dollar yesterday as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.8840 level and was supported around the $0.8755 level.
The yen depreciated against the U.S. dollar yesterday as the greenback tested offers around the JPY106.95 level and was supported around the JPY106.00 figure.
The Swiss franc appreciated against the U.S. dollar yesterday as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0885 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0965 level.
The Canadian dollar appreciated against the U.S. dollar yesterday as the greenback tested bids around the CAD/USD 1.0050 level and was capped around the CAD/USD 1.0115 level.
Market expectation
Japanese investors may convert euro into yen after the redemption of euro-denominated bonds on Jan. 31.
The euro is marking time before the FOMC decision on Wednesday. For now, dealers are penciling in sell-stops at $1.4750. The next support comes around $1.4700.
No one believes that the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting will be dollar bullish. The only thing that can help the dollar would be some groundbreaking stimulus measures announced by President Bush in his State of the Union address tonight.
Today durable goods orders and consumer confidence will be closely monitored. The key highlight will be the FOMC monetary policy decision on Wednesday afternoon.
The US data calendar is heavy this week, with the highlights being GDP and non-farm payrolls. Softer consumption data late in the year adds some downside risks to our forecast of 1% (annualised) GDP growth, while payrolls are expected to improve on the weak December figures, though these may be revised higher.
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