The main focus today is US retail sales. We expect a decent report with growth of 0.3% in 'core' retail sales excluding cars and gasoline. August data for total vehicle sales (unit data) showed a significant rebound from July's decline - hence we expect total retail sales to show a gain of 0.4% m/m. We expect the University of Michigan to improve slightly in September on the back lower gasoline prices and continued improvement in the labour market.
US and Russian foreign ministers will today continue negotiations on an agreement to dismantle Syria's chemical weapons programme. An agreement on a timetable would probably rule out a US military attack in the coming weeks.
The Eurogroup will review the adjustment programmes of Cyprus, Portugal and Ireland, the economic outlook and monitoring of member states. Major decisions are on hold due to the ongoing German election campaign. The state election in Bavaria will be held on Sunday and may give some indication of the outcome of the federal election on September 22.
In Norway we expect Norges Bank's regional survey to improve, suggesting growth is returning to trend - possibly forcing Norges Bank to normalise interest rates faster.
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