USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2788; (P) 1.2856; (R1) 1.2905;
Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as it’s bounded in range of 1.2728/2996. We’d maintain our view that price actions from 1.3124 as a corrective move that could be completed at 1.2526 already. Break of 1.2996 will turn bias to the upside and extend the rise from 1.2526 to 1.3124 key resistance next. However, break of 1.2728 will dampen this bullish view and bring deeper fall back to 1.2526 and possibly below.
In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the case that that rebound from 1.2061 has not completed yet. Focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Sustained trading above there will confirm medium term bullish reversal. That is, down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 already. In that case, next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. However, break of 1.2526 support will dampen this bullish view again. And, focus will be back on 1.2061 key support level, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1583; (P) 1.1624; (R1) 1.1660;
A temporary low is in place at 1.1580 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidation would be seen in EUR/CHF but deeper fall is expected as long as 1.1770 resistance holds. Below 1.1580 will target key support level at 1.1445. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound, at least, on first attempt. Meanwhile, firm break of 1.1770 will suggest that the pull back from 1.2004 is already completed and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests solid rejection by prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, 1.2004 could be a medium term top. And price action from 1.2004 is correcting the up trend from 1.0629. Hence, for now, deeper fall could be seen back to 1.1445, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1479. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound to extend the medium term corrective pattern.
