Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The yield on the 10-year note rose almost 9% the past couple of days. So does that mean that a new trend is in play? The fact is that the yield on the 10-year note is in a down trend. The decline in...

For the first time ever, the German 10-Year bund yield has fallen below the 10-Year Japanese government bond yield. This Great Graphic shows a long-term chart of the spread between the two and was...

The cure for systemic fragility is not low interest rates forever—it's a market that transparently prices credit and risk for lenders and borrowers, qualified and marginal alike.One of the most...

Government bond yields are increasingly negative, the markets realize this -- and people are still buying them.Here are some links below that discuss this development: Negative-Yielding Bonds...

CFTC Futures data shows speculators continue to pare bearish positions10 Year Treasuries: Large U.S. 10-Year Note futures traders continued to cut back on their overall bearish bets last week for a...

Last year, in the 5/8 Morning Briefing, I discussed nine reasons why yields were falling rather than rising, using the following headings: “Bond shortage,” “Portfolio...

There are a number of investors and economists who argue that, yield wise, where Japan was, Europe and the US are headed. Most recently they emphasize Europe following Japan more than the US.Although...

The Federal Reserve continues to signal that it will start raising interest rates later this year, according to yesterday’s FOMC statement. But the Treasury market begs to differ. The benchmark...

Since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand first formerly targeted inflation rates roughly 25 years ago, other central banks around the globe have followed suit; that is, many banks have been setting...

Weekly CFTC COT Net Speculator Report | 10 Year US Treasury Note CFTC Futures data shows speculators cut down on their bearish bets to lowest since November10 Year Treasuries: Large US 10 Year T-Note...

Bonds have been in a virtually uninterrupted uptrend since New Year’s Eve, 2013. Looking at interest rates, I wonder if we have turned the corner and are heading into higher rates. Examining...

US Treasuries were one of the stories of 2014. Not one pundit or economist surveyed expected them to rise in price in 2014. Yet they did so with a vengeance. If the US dollar or Shanghai Composite did...

This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, shows Japan's (white line) and China's (yellow line) holdings of U.S. Treasuries in November 2014 based on the latest TIC data.Japan's holdings rose to a...

Through the use of a dynamic Taylor rule we detect how loose the ECB monetary policy stance should be. Our ECB reaction function, suggests that short-term interest rates should have to be negative and...