Our views differ a bit on this, which is fine. Using technical tools like Fibonacci extensions, Elliott Wave, or Harmonic patterns can help with establishing reward to risk parameters and give a sense of how historically a move would play out. But yes in the end it is a guess. So for this morning, and for Jon’s sake, lets take a look at the Andrews Pitchfork on the S&P 500 (SPX) weekly chart. Using this tool there are two different scale trends that can be seen. First the green Pitckfork, dating back to June 2010 has been in
control and driving the S&P higher since October 2011. The Median Line has been the guide as it rises higher, pulling it back when it falls and not allowing it to get very far above it. But that may be changing with the most recent leg higher. The shorter term blue Pitchfork that has been operating since June 2012 shows a steepening of the trend with the price being attracted to the Median Line. This is pulling it away from the Median Line of the green Pitchfork towards the Upper Median Line. A continued move higher along the blue Median Line through the midpoint on the green Pitchfork could even accelerate this move further. But one thing is clear. The trend is higher.
The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.
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