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Higher inflation - what?!Time to buy linkers in BEI spread. We like SGBi3107 in both BEI spread and in BEI box against Europe. Trading at an attractive level.The nominal bond curve - a potential...
Inflation in the euro area has been on a downward trajectory since September 2012. If inflation moves even lower and the risk of deflation increases, it could add pressure on the ECB to cut interest...
Market movers today In addition to the normal statement, the Fed will publish FOMC members' projections for growth and the Fed funds rate, followed by a press conference with Chairman Ben Bernanke. He...
Market movers todayU.S. housing starts and permits. Following the strong rise in the NAHB housing index yesterday, it seems the somewhat softer housing activity data are behind us. Housing starts are...
The latest IMM data shows that for a second week in row, investors scaled back on record long aggregated USD positions in the week ending June 11. Aggregated net long USD positions are now equivalent...
Market movers today An interesting week ahead, with FOMC meeting Wednesday, China Flash PMI and the euro area on Thursday. Today's U.S. Empire index will be the first regional business survey...
Once again, Bernanke is likely to stress that first, tapering of QE is not a tightening of monetary policy but rather a scale down of monetary easing and second, that a scale down of QE does not...
Market movers aheadThe Fed meeting gives Ben Bernanke an opportunity to guide market expectations. Markit PMI will provide new data on the extent of the soft patch.In the euro area, the key data...
ReviewDiscussions regarding the Fed's scaling down of asset purchases later in the year have fuelled a sell-off in the core bond markets, which has led to a rise in volatility over the past...
The U.S. economy is working its way through a soft patch due to substantial fiscal tightening. However, at the same time, the U.S. outlook for 2014 is strengthening, as fiscal tightening is proving...
It is one step back and one step forward in the financial markets these days. After being under pressure earlier in the week, U.S. stock markets rebounded Thursday on speculation that the Federal...
Open second clip of receive 1Y EUR swaps, 2Y forward @ 1.05%. Average entry 0.99%, target @ 0.60%, stop @ 1.21%, roll-down +10bp in 3M. First ½ position was opened @ 0.925% on 4 June (see Trade...
The Irish economy’s long journey to recuperation continues with the Irish economy continuing to outperform euro area peers.Ireland has suffered from the biggest boom and bust property bubble in...
We expect a decent U.S. retail sales report for May. Growth in headline retail sales is expected to come out at 0.2%, and we forecast an increase of the same magnitude in retail sales excluding...
U.S. retail sales gained 0.6% m/m in May. The core components ex autos and gasoline 0.3% and the control group (ex autos, gasoline and building materials) 0.3%. The annual revisions to the retail...
Stabilisation battlefield will have implications for monetary policyNIER new confidence survey - turning higher?Take profit on long RV position in mortgage bondsUnexpected move in ASW spreads offers...
Over the past three or four weeks, we have seen a very sharp sell-off in Emerging Markets - equities, fixed income and FX. Even though there are country-specific events such as the recent political...