Danske Markets

It is a rare moment in the global economy. After years and years with bad headlines Europe is now the main provider of good news. Growth is surprising to the upside, our models are the most upbeat...

Buy SGBi3107 outright @ -1.55% or against SGB1051 in an BEI spread @ 122.5bp.The Riksbank is determined to make progress in reaching its inflation rate target. The sooner the better is clearly their...

Euro-area M3 money supply increased 4.0% y/y in February after rising 3.7% y/y in January (revised down from 4.1% y/y). This is the highest rate of increase since April 2009. Growth in M1 money...

Euro M3 money supply is expected to show a further increase in February to 4.3% from 4.1% in January. Money supply growth has picked up recently and real M1 growth, which is a good leading indicator...

Market Overview The Fed and the BoE scale back their policy rate outlook. In a surprise move, Sweden's Riksbank eases policy again. Oil prices dip briefly again. Interest-rate hedging We...

Denmark: Danmarks Nationalbank lowered policy rates to a record low in defence of the peg. Sweden: Riksbank goes to currency war? Keep an eye on developments in SEK. Norway: Noticeable growth...

Market movers today The German Ifo for March is expected to show a further increase as indicated by the rise in both ZEW and PMI index. We look for a rise to 107.4 (consensus 107.3) from 106.8 last...

It was a rather soft week in the high-yield credit markets with both the iTraxx Crossover and our Nordic High-Yield Index widening by 14bp (DBM HY index return last week: -1.5%). While most...

Manufacturing PMI increased from 51.0 in February to 51.9 in March and is now at the highest level since May 2014 (consensus 51.5, Danske Bank Markets 52.0). The details behind the improvement were...

Sell SGB1052 in an ASW spread @ -40bp. P/L: -30bp/-48bp. 3m carry/roll: +2.5bp. The Riksbank bond purchase programme has moved ASW spreads 15bp wider in the 10- year segment (SGB1058). In the 2-year...

The flash estimate for China's HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI in March declined by more than expected to 49.2 (consensus: 50.5, Danske Bank Markets: 50.6) from a final reading of 50.7 in February. This...

Market movers today We expect the euro-area manufacturing PMI to edge higher in March, as indicated by our model, which is based on real M1 growth and the effective euro. The stronger...

The latest IMM data covers the week from 11 March to 17 March 2015 . Long USD positioning rose ahead of the FOMC meeting last Wednesday as anticipation of a more hawkish Fed grew -- EUR shorts were...

Market movers today Fed members Stanley Fischer (voter, neutral) and John Williams (voter, dove) are due to speak this afternoon. They are likely to reiterate the message that due to higher...

Market pricing of Fed funds rate hikes over the coming four years is extremely subdued. We see a significant potential for a re-pricing of this pace over the coming six months. We expect the first...

The main event this past week was the Fed meeting, which clarified the Fed’s view on the stronger USD and softer data. It became clear from the meeting that the recent uncertainty has led the...