Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC

Perhaps it shouldn’t come as a surprise. After all, during the first quarter of this year several key banks announced they had had enough. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Nomura (NYSE:NMR), Credit...

JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon climbed back up on the bond bear. It was one year ago, May 7, 2018, when he went on BloombergTV and caused a substantial market stir when he said 4%. No one would...

In a period when weird and unusual are commonplace, it was one of the more noteworthy and interesting outliers. Late in August 2010, a media report attributed to Hong Kong’s Ming Pao news agency...

GDP was better than 3% in the first quarter, the payroll report was greater than +250k, and the unemployment rate was the lowest in fifty years. The economy in the US must (still) be booming.But: The...

Yesterday, the FOMC altered its view of household spending and business capex. It wasn’t a huge difference, they never are. Figuratively, these sorts of downgrades are little by little even...

Federal funds are up again. As of yesterday, the 29th, the effective rate (EFF) is now 5 bps above IOER. That takes it to within 5 bps below the top of the Federal Reserve’s policy range....

The easy answer for “muted” inflation is consumers. Forget the unemployment rate debate. Let’s assume that labor markets are tight. Workers are scarce and companies have to compete,...

The economic sickness is predictably spreading. While unexpected in most of the world which still, somehow, depends on central banking forecasts, it really has been almost inevitable. From the very...

Next month, in the durable goods series, the Census Bureau will release the results of its annual benchmark changes. In May 2019, the agency will revise the seasonal adjustments going back to January...

As noted yesterday, what’s typically behind these hopes about “green shoots” is a central bank, more often than not more than one central bank. In 2019, the Fed’s pause...

Nothing will ever compare to China’s New Year Golden Week holiday for challenging economic statistics. Since the celebrations are not affixed to a specific point on the calendar, floating around...

At last week’s ECB press conference, the central bank’s President Mario Draghi was both downbeat and upbeat. As to the former, he acknowledged that Europe’s economy wasn’t...

Germany’s ZEW survey became the latest to pick up a pick up in sentiment. This particular appraisal had been one of the first early on last year to suggest a beginning slide toward a downturn....

According to revised figures, things were really looking up for US industry. For the month of April 2018, the Federal Reserve’s Diffusion Index (3-month) for Industrial Production hit 68.2. Like...

The rest of the TIC data was relatively straightforward, at least in viewing it as a proxy for monetary conditions offshore (spilling over, as EFF, onshore). Through February 2019, the usual: shortage...

These things are actually quite related, though I understand how it might not appear to be that way at first. As noted earlier today, the Fed (yet again) proves it has no idea how global money markets...