Breaking News

U.S. PCE Price index YoY

Latest Release

Jan 31, 2025

Actual

2.6%

Forecast

2.6%

2.4%

The PCE price index, also referred to as the PCE deflator, is a United States-wide indicator of the average increase in prices for all domestic personal consumption. The impact on the currency may go both ways: a rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency; on the other hand, during recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.

Importance:

Country:

Currency: USD

Source: US Department of Commerce

Release Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Jan 31, 2025 (Dec)	08:30	2.6%	2.6%	2.4%
Dec 20, 2024 (Nov)	08:30	2.4%	2.5%	2.3%
Nov 27, 2024 (Oct)	10:00	2.3%	2.3%	2.1%
Oct 31, 2024 (Sep)	07:30	2.1%	2.1%	2.3%
Sep 27, 2024 (Aug)	07:30	2.2%	2.3%	2.5%
Aug 30, 2024 (Jul)	07:30	2.5%	2.6%	2.5%

News

Asia FX sees limited relief, dollar dips as Trump postpones Canada, Mexico tariffs By Investing.com - Feb 03, 2025

Investing.com-- Most Asian currencies recovered mildly on Tuesday, while the dollar nursed losses after U.S. President Donald Trump postponed plans to impose trade tariffs against Canada and...

Asia FX slumps as dollar rallies on Trump tariffs; yuan near record low By Investing.com - Feb 02, 2025 2

Investing.com-- Asian currencies weakened sharply on Monday, with the Chinese yuan nearing a record low in offshore trade as the dollar rallied after U.S. President Donald Trump delivered on his...

U.S. PCE inflation accelerates in December By Investing.com - Jan 31, 2025 6

Investing.com - The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index accelerated slightly in December, in line with estimates, while the pace of consumer spending unexpectedly rose, according to a...

Analysis

Inflation Remains Stubbornly High, but Incomes and Spending Data Stay Solid By Michael Gouvalaris - Feb 03, 2025

Personal Consumption Expenditures minus food and energy (Core PCE) increased 0.2% in December, and 2.8% over the last 12 months. The Fed’s preferred indicator on inflation has now remained stubbornly...

S&P 500: Volatility Levels Suggest There Isn’t Much Left to Gain By Michael Kramer - Jan 23, 2025 3

Stocks were up pretty big yesterday, at least on the surface, with the S&P 500 rising by 63 basis points. However, when we look at the market overall, the volume of S&P 500 futures was very...

S&P 500: Are Analysts Overlooking Critical Headwinds Amid Bright 2025 Forecasts? By Lance Roberts - Dec 30, 2024 3

Last week, we discussed that the selloff heading into Christmas was the setup for the beginning of the year-end “Santa Claus” rally. On Christmas Eve, Santa arrived, pushing the markets back above...

PCE Price index (YoY) Discussion

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All Comments (3)

mg bishton Nov 30, 2023 9:33AM ET

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The Core PCE price index on Nov 24, 2021 indicated prices had inflated by 4.2% from the same period in 2020. On Dec 1, 2022 prices had inflated another 5%. Now they’ve inflated another 3.5%. The FED only wants to get inflation down to 2% per year while market mavens (I.e. Big Money) say getting it down to 3% is plenty and the FED should start dropping the FED’s “target Rate” and charging them less interest (Which is already way lower than the interest consumers have to pay to buy a house, care or other improvements) Unless a person is making 14% more than they did in 2020, they need negative inflation rates to catch up. and for future inflation rates to be at or less than the annual increases in their wages. That vast majority of people have savings accounts but don’t “play the markets” so higher Fed rates mean they get more interest on their savings. This economy is 70% dependent on consumer consumption. Don’t let the greed of those already in the markets kill the golden goose!

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Michael Caroline Nov 30, 2023 9:33AM ET

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Carl Igo Dec 01, 2022 6:29AM ET

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Musk brings up an interesting point. Based on the data used in their models, are the Feds looking in the rear view mirror instead of forward through the windshield? Are they massively over raising interest rates that could have a catastrophic momentum driving the economy into a recession next year?

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Javisman Dec 01, 2022 6:29AM ET

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They are socialists populists, they only care for today, they don't give a damnn about "the future"!

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wm sm Nov 14, 2022 10:38AM ET

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In the discussion section we start out talking about PCE as expected, but then it starts talking about the effect of CPI on currency. Looks like a typo.

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US 500	6,083.9	+0.4	+0.01%
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S&P 500	6,083.57	+22.09	+0.36%
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Natural Gas	3.378	+0.001	+0.03%
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Silver	32.858	+0.232	+0.71%
Copper	4.4953	+0.0365	+0.82%
US Soybeans	1,062.13	+0.38	+0.04%

U.S. 10Y	4.438	0.000	0.00%
U.S. 30Y	4.645	-0.002	-0.04%
U.S. 5Y	4.280	+0.007	+0.16%
U.S. 3M	4.345	+0.021	+0.49%
US 10Y T-Note	109.55	-0.03	-0.03%
Euro Bund	133.39	-0.02	-0.01%
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	Interest Rates	Next Meeting
FED	4.50%	Mar 19, 2025
ECB	2.90%	Mar 06, 2025
BOE	4.50%	Feb 06, 2025
SNB	0.50%	Mar 20, 2025
RBA	4.35%	Feb 18, 2025
BOC	3.00%	Mar 12, 2025
RBNZ	4.25%	Feb 19, 2025
BOJ	0.50%	Mar 19, 2025
CBR	21.00%	Feb 14, 2025
RBI	6.50%	Feb 07, 2025
PBOC	3.10%
BCB	13.25%	Mar 19, 2025