Will Lowe's (LOW) Register Earnings & Comps Growth In Q3?

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW) is set to release third-quarter fiscal 2017 results on Nov 21. In the trailing four quarters, this home improvement retailer underperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by an average of 1.6%. In the second and first quarter, it missed the consensus estimate by 3.1% and 3.7%, respectively.

Which Way are Estimates Treading?

Let’s look at earnings estimate revisions in order to get a clear picture of what analysts are thinking about the company prior to the release. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter under review has been stable in the last 30 days and is pegged at $1.02. This reflects a sharp improvement of roughly 16% from 88 cents in the year-ago quarter. Analysts polled by Zacks expect revenues of $16,568 million, up 5.3% year over year.

From aforementioned estimates, it is quite evident that Lowe’s is likely to continue with its top- and bottom-lines growth streak in the third quarter as well. Earnings per share have increased 14.6% and 18.4%, while net sales rose 6.8% and 10.7% in the second and first quarters of fiscal 2017, respectively.

Factors at Play

An improving job scenario, housing market recovery, merchandising initiatives and post hurricane construction activities along with efforts to enhance omni-channel capabilities bode well for Lowe’s. It also remains well-positioned to reap the benefits of strategic acquisitions done earlier such as that of RONA. In an effort to strengthen relationship with pro customers, the company has concluded the acquisition of Maintenance Supply Headquarters, the distributor of maintenance, repair and operations products.

The reflection of these endeavors is evident from 4.5% rise in second-quarter comparable sales (comps), up from 1.9% recorded in the first quarter. This improvement can be attributable to 0.9% growth in transaction and a 3.6% increase in average ticket. Comps for the U.S. business rose 4.6%, following an increase of 2% in the first quarter. The company registered 43% comp growth on lowes.com in the second quarter.

Undoubtedly, the above discussion makes us optimistic about Lowe’s performance in the soon-to-be reported quarter. However, threats emerging from cannibalization and stiff competition cannot be ignored. Also, we observed that the company’s margin have been under pressure for quite some time now. In the fourth, third, second and first quarters of fiscal 2016, Lowe’s gross margin had contracted 25, 40, 10 and 43 basis points (bps), respectively. In the first and second quarters of fiscal 2017, the same declined a respective 64 and 23 bps to 34.4% and 34.2%.

Lowe's Companies, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Lowe's Companies, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise | Lowe's Companies, Inc. Quote

What the Zacks Model Unveils?

Our proven model shows that Lowe's is likely to beat estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both — a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) and a positive Earnings ESP — for this to happen. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Lowe's has an Earnings ESP of +0.49% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. This makes us reasonably confident that the bottom line is likely to outperform estimates.

Other Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are some other companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NYSE:AEO) has an Earnings ESP of +1.04% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Kroger Co. (NYSE:KR) has an Earnings ESP of +2.06% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Signet Jewelers Limited (NYSE:SIG) has an Earnings ESP of +27.52% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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