Why Is United Dominion (UDR) Up 1% Since Its Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for United Dominion Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE:UDR) . Shares have added about 1% in that time frame.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is UDR due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

UDR Q4 FFO In Line With Expectations, Revenues Increase

UDR reported FFO as adjusted per share of 48 cents for fourth-quarter 2017, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The figure also came higher than the prior-year quarter tally of 46 cents.

For full-year 2017, FFO as adjusted per share came in at $1.87 per share, up 4.5% from the 2016 figure. Also, it surpassed full-year Zacks Consensus Estimate for FFO per share of $1.86.

Total revenues for the quarter rose 4.1% year over year to $252.9 million. Further, the top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $251.4 million. For full-year 2017, revenues were $995.8 million, up 3.7% from the year-ago figure. It also surpassed the full-year Zacks Consensus Estimate of $988.1 million. Growth in revenues for the quarter and the year was due to the rise in revenues from same-store communities and stabilized non-mature communities.

Inside the Headlines

During the quarter, same-store revenues increased 3.1% year over year while same-store expenses increased 2.9%. Consequently, same-store net operating income (NOI) rose 3.1% year over year. However, the company’s same-store physical occupancy remained flat at 96.8%. The fourth quarter annualized-rate of turnover contracted 40 basis points from the prior-year period to 41.2%.

At the end of the fourth quarter, UDR’s development pipeline aggregated $864.5 million at its pro-rata ownership interest. This included $54 million of completed, non-stabilized projects and $810.5 million of under-construction developments.

As of Dec 31, 2017, the company had around $855.3 million available from a combination of cash and undrawn capacity on its credit facilities. Further, the company’s total debt was $3.7 billion as of the same date.

Portfolio Activity

At the end of the fourth quarter, the company’s Developer Capital Program investment, including accrued return, totaled $158.9 million.

Guidance

For first-quarter 2018, UDR projects FFO as adjusted per share in the 46-48 cents range.

For full-year 2018, the company projects FFO as adjusted per share of $1.91-$1.95. Moreover, the company anticipates same-store NOI remain in the range of 2.5-3.5% for the year.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. There has been one revision higher for the current quarter compared to two lower.

United Dominion Realty Trust, Inc. Price and Consensus

United Dominion Realty Trust, Inc. Price and Consensus | United Dominion Realty Trust, Inc. Quote

VGM Scores

At this time, UDR has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the momentum front with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock was also allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

The company's stock is suitable solely for growth based on our styles scores.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise UDR has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.