Why Is TJX (TJX) Down 20.2% Since Last Earnings Report?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for TJX (TJX). Shares have lost about 20.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is TJX due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX) Beats Q4 Earnings & Revenue Estimates

The TJX Companies has posted fourth-quarter fiscal 2020 results, with earnings and sales rising year over year as well as surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Further, comps increased on consistent improvement in customer traffic. Moreover, management provided a positive bottom-line view for fiscal 2021.

Quarterly Details

The company’s earnings were 81 cents per share, which increased 19% year over year. Further, the bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 77 cents as well as management’s guidance.

Net sales advanced about 10% year over year to $12,206.5 million and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $11,867 million. Net sales growth included a neutral impact from currency movements.

Sales were backed by solid comparable store sales (comps), which gained from robust customer traffic across all segments. TJX Companies' consolidated comps rose 6% year over year.

Comps increased 4%, 10%, 6% and 5% in TJX Canada, TJX International, Marmaxx and HomeGoods segments, respectively.

Gross margin improved 0.6 percentage point (pp) to 28.4%. Selling, general and administrative costs, as a percentage of sales, rose 0.3 pp year over year to 17.5%.

Other Financial Updates

The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $3,216.8 million, long-term debt of $2,236.6 million and total shareholders’ equity of $5,948.2 million. Cash provided by operating activities for 52 weeks ended Feb 1, 2020, was $4,066.7 million.

Consolidated inventories as of February 1, 2020 on a per-store basis (including distribution centers and excluding e-commerce, inventory in transit as well as Sierra stores) increased 4% (also on a constant-currency basis) year over year. Given its impressive inventory position, the company is well poised to take advantage of solid opportunities in the holiday season.

During the reported quarter, TJX Companies returned $631 million to stockholders through dividend payouts and share buybacks. In fiscal fourth quarter, the company repurchased 5.9 million shares for $355 million and paid out dividends worth $276 million. In fiscal 2020, management paid out dividends worth $1.1 billion and repurchased 27.1 million shares for $1.5 billion.

TJX Companies intends to buy back shares worth $1.5-$1.75 billion in fiscal 2020. Further, the company unveiled a new plan to repurchase $1.75-$2.25 billion worth of TJX stock during fiscal 2021.

The company opened 223 stores in fiscal 2020, taking the total count to 4,529.

Fiscal 2021 & Q1 Guidance

For fiscal 2021, TJX Companies projects earnings per share (EPS) in the range of $2.77-$2.83, which indicates growth of 4-6% from $2.67 per share reported a year ago. Further, it expects consolidated and Marmaxx comps growth in the range of 2-3%.

For the first quarter, the company expects earnings in the band of 59-60 cents per share. The projected figure calls for a rise from 57 cents reported in the year-ago quarter. TJX Companies consolidated comps growth of 2-3% for the quarter. It anticipates comps at Marmaxx to increase in the same range.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted -18.04% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, TJX has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, TJX has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.