Why Is SunPower (SPWR) Down 42.6% Since Last Earnings Report?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for SunPower (SPWR). Shares have lost about 42.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is SunPower due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

SunPower Q4 Earnings Top Estimates, Revenues Miss

SunPower reported adjusted earnings of 23 cents per share in fourth-quarter 2019, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 13 cents by 77%. The company had incurred a loss of 21 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Including one-time adjustments, the company generated GAAP earnings of 3 cents per share against the prior-year quarter’s loss of $1.12 per share.

The year-over-year improvement can be attributed to solid revenues and operating income growth.

For 2019, the company reported adjusted loss of 29 cents per share, in contrast to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 41 cents. The company had incurred a loss of 72 cents per share in the prior year.

Operational Results

For the quarter under review, SunPower’s adjusted revenues came in at $607 million, lagging the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $609 million by 0.4%. However, the top line improved 15.5% from $525.4 million in the year-ago quarter.

The reported figure came in below the mid-point of the company’s expectation of $520-$720 million. The year-over-year upside can be primarily attributed to higher revenues from both SunPower Energy Services and SunPower Technologies business units.

For 2019, the company recorded adjusted revenues of $1.99 billion, lagging the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.03 billion by 2%. However, the top line improved 9.8% from last year’s $1.81 billion.

Furthermore, the company recorded adjusted gross profit of $126.1 million, up a massive 248.4% from the year-ago quarter. Its adjusted gross margin expanded 1,390 basis points to 20.8%.

These apart, SunPower deployed 707 megawatts (MW) in the fourth quarter compared with 461 MW in fourth-quarter 2018. The company surpassed its expected range of 445-645 MW in the reported quarter.

Financial Position

SunPower had cash and cash equivalents of $423 million as of Dec 29, 2019, compared with $309.4 million as of Dec 30, 2018.

Long-term debt was $113.8 million as of Dec 29, 2019, compared with $40.5 million as of Dec 31, 2018.

In 2019, net cash outflow from operating activities totaled $270.4 million compared with cash outflow of $543.4 million in 2018.

Outlook

For first-quarter 2020, the company expects to generate adjusted revenues of $435-$470 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is pegged at $395.9 million, lower than the company guided range.

Adjusted gross margin is estimated to be 9-12%. Additionally, it anticipates deployment of 520-570 MW in the same period.

SunPower currently expects to generate adjusted revenues of $2.1-$2.3 billion in 2020. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for full-year revenues, pegged at $2.28 billion, lies above the mid-point of the company guided range.

It currently projects 2020 deployment to be in the range of 2.5-2.8 gigawatts.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

At this time, SunPower has an average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision has been net zero. Notably, SunPower has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.