Why Is Crown Castle (CCI) Down 4% Since Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Crown Castle (CCI). Shares have lost about 4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Crown Castle due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Crown Castle's Q4 FFO and Revenues Miss Estimates

Crown Castle reported fourth-quarter 2019 adjusted FFO per share of $1.38, down 0.7% year over year. Further, the reported figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.48.

Net revenues for the reported quarter of $1.43 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.48 billion. However, the figure inched up 1.6% year over year.

The year-on-year revenue increase reflects growth in site-rental revenues. However, services and other revenues were down during the quarter. Management also noted that there was a “noticeable slowdown in activity” in the fourth quarter.

For full-year 2019, Crown Castle reported adjusted FFO per share of $5.69, reflecting an increase of 6% from the prior year’s $5.37. Revenues for the year came in at $5.8 billion, up 7.4% year on year.

Quarter in Detail

Site-rental revenues came in at around $1.3 billion, up 5.6% year over year. The $71 million in organic contribution to site rental revenues represents 5.9% growth, driven by new leasing activity, as well as contracted tenant escalations. Services and other revenues were down 26.4% year over year to $128 million.

Quarterly operating income increased 3.6% year over year to $379 million. However, operating expenses flared up 1% year over year to $1.05 billion. Quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $818 million marked year-over-year growth of 1.9%.

Balance Sheet

Crown Castle exited fourth-quarter 2019 with cash and cash equivalents of $196 million, down from the $277 million reported at the end of 2018.

Furthermore, as of Dec 31, 2019, the company generated $2.7 billion of net cash from operating activities compared with the $2.5 billion reported in the year-ago period.

Also, debt and other long-term obligations aggregated $18 billion, up from the $16.6 billion witnessed at the end of 2018.

2020 Outlook

Crown Castle has updated its outlook for 2020 to reflect the impact of the restatement of the previously-issued financial statements. The company now expects site-rental revenues of $5,337-$5,382 million, reflecting a $141-million increase at the mid-point. Adjusted EBITDA is projected at $3,479-$3,524 million, indicating a $90-million decline at the mid-point. Adjusted FFO is projected at $2,572-$2,617 million, suggesting a $90-million slump at the mid-point.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.

VGM Scores

At this time, Crown Castle has a nice Growth Score of B, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with an A. However, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the fifth quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Notably, Crown Castle has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.