Why Is Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) Down 28.7% Since Last Earnings Report?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO). Shares have lost about 28.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Agios Pharmaceuticals due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Agios’ Q4 Loss Narrower Than Expected, Revenues Beat

Agios reported fourth-quarter 2019 loss of $1.60 per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.78 but slightly wider than the year-ago loss of $1.58.

Total revenues in the reported quarter were $35.4 million, higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $31 million. Moreover, revenues grew 18% on a year-over-year basis. The year-over-year top-line growth is driven by a strong uptake of Tibsovo in the frontline and relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukemia (AML) settings. The drug generated sales worth $19.6 million in the fourth quarter, reflecting a sequential rise of 12.6%.

Royalty revenues earned from Celgene (NASDAQ:CELG) were $3 million on Idhifa net sales in the reported quarter while collaboration revenues were $12.9 million.

Research & development expenses rose 13.2% year over year to $106.2 million, largely due to higher cost of late-stage clinical studies for pipeline development.

General and administrative expenses increased 9.1% year over year to $34.8 million in the quarter on account of higher investments and personnel costs.

Agios ended the fourth quarter with cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $717.8 million, lower than the sequential quarter’s level of $540.5 million. The company expects this cash balance and revenues recognized from Tibsovo as well as royalties to effectively fund its current operational plans for at least through the end of 2021.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Estimates revision followed an upward path over the past two months.

VGM Scores

At this time, Agios Pharmaceuticals has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a C. However, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Agios Pharmaceuticals has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.