Why Is Acadia (ACAD) Up 1.1% Since Last Earnings Report?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD). Shares have added about 1.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Acadia due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

ACADIA Q4 Earnings Surpass, Nuplazid Drives Sales

ACADIA reported fourth-quarter 2019 loss of 34 cents per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 37 cents as well as the year-ago loss of 50 cents.

Total revenues comprising net sales of the sole marketed drug Nuplazid (pimavanserin) soared 65% year over year to $98.3 million in the fourth quarter. The top line also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $96 million.

Quarter in Detail

Sales of Nuplazid have grown steadily both year over year and sequentially. On fourth-quarter conference call, management stated that the number of patients being treated with Nuplazid continues to grow. Demand for the drug remains strong across both the specialty pharmacy and the specialty distribution channels.

Research and development (R&D) expenses were $57.5 million in the quarter, up 19.3% from the year-ago period due to higher development costs related to the company’s pipeline candidate trofinetide and label expansion studies on Nuplazid.

Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses rose 23.7% year over year to $91.9 million due to increased marketing expense and higher advertising and personnel costs.

As of Dec31, 2019, ACADIA had cash, cash equivalents and investments of $697.4 million compared with $683.8 million as of Sep 30, 2019.

2020 Guidance

ACADIA expects total revenues in the range of $440-$470 million for the full year.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted -36.33% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Acadia has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the lowest quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision has been net zero. Notably, Acadia has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.