Weekly FX Market Forecast: October 26th – 30th

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of October 26th – October 30th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

Sunday, October 25th
3:00am CHF Daylight Saving Time Shift
3:00am EUR Daylight Saving Time Shift
3:00am GBP Daylight Saving Time Shift
All Day NZD Bank Holiday

Monday, October 26th
10:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate (108.1 expected, > good for currency)
3:00pm USD New Home Sales (546K expected, > good for currency)
10:45pm NZD Trade Balance (-822M expected, > good for currency)

Tuesday, October 27th
10:00am EUR M3 Money Supply (5.0% expected, < good for currency)
10:30am GBP Preliminary GDP (0.6% expected, > good for currency)
1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders (0.0% expected, > good for currency)
1:30pm USD Durable Goods Orders (-1.1% expected, > good for currency)
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence (102.5 expected, > good for currency)
4:20pm CAD Governor Council Member Lane speaks (hawkish = good for currency)

Wednesday, October 28th
12:50am JPY Retail Sales (0.5% expected, > good for currency)
1:30am AUD CPI (0.7% expected, > good for currency)
1:30am AUD Trimmed Mean CPI (0.5% expected, > good for currency)
1:30pm USD Goods Trade Balance (-64.9B expected, > good for currency)
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories (last 8.0M, > good for currency)
7:00pm USD FOMC Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
7:00pm USD Federal Funds Rate (<0.25% expected, > good for currency)
9:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate (2.75% expected, > good for currency)
9:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)

Thursday, October 29th
1:30am AUD Import Prices (1.6% expected, > good for currency)
All Day EUR German Preliminary CPI (-0.1% expected, > good for currency)
9:00am EUR Spanish Flash CPI (-0.6% expected, > good for currency)
9:55am EUR German Unemployment Change (-4K expected, < good for currency)
10:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals (4.4B expected, > good for currency)
1:30pm CAD RMPI (last -6.6%, > good for currency)
1:30pm USD Advance GDP (1.6% expected, > good for currency)
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (264K expected, < good for currency)
1:30pm USD Advance GDP Price Index (1.5% expected, > good for currency)
2:10pm USD FOMC Member Lockhart speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales (1.1% expected, > good for currency)

Friday, October 30th
12:30am JPY Household Spending (1.2% expected, > good for currency)
12:30am JPY Tokyo Core CPI (-0.2% expected, > good for currency)
1:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence (last -18.9 expected, > good for currency)
1:30am AUD PPI (last 0.3% expected, > good for currency)
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
7:00am JPY BOJ Outlook Report (hawkish = good for currency)
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)
8:00am EUR German Retail Sales (0.4% expected, > good for currency)
9:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer (100.1 expected, > good for currency)
9:00am EUR Spanish Flash GDP (0.9% expected, > good for currency)
11:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0.0% expected, > good for currency)
11:00am EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate (0.9% expected, > good for currency)
11:00am EUR Unemployment Rate (11.0% expected, < good for currency)
1:30pm CAD GDP (0.1% expected, > good for currency)
1:30pm USD Employment Cost Index (0.6% expected, > good for currency)
1:30pm USD Core PCE Price Index (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
1:30pm USD Personal Spending (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
2:45pm USD Chicago PMI (49.5 expected, > good for currency)
3:00pm USD FOMC Member Williams speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
3:00pm USD Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (92.6 expected, > good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EUR/USD: Lower
Resistance:
Initial: 1.1040, 1.1048, 1.1094/97, 1.1104, 1.1113/15, 1.1133/34, 1.1142/44, 1.1150, 1.1159, 1.1170/75, 1.1192, 1.1211/19, 1.1256/80, 1.1294/1.1303, 1.1317/18, 1.1331/33, 1.1375/91, 1.1422/34, 1.1442/49, 1.1459, 1.1483, 1.1494/98, 1.1533, 1.1642, 1.1713, 1.1753, 1.1866/77, 1.1900/01, 1.1938, 1.1975, 1.2041, 1.2133, 1.2143, 1.2162/64, 1.2219, 1.2241/55, 1.2270/72, 1.2323/33, 1.2357/62, 1.2381/94, 1.2407/39, 1.2455, 1.2494/96, 1.2500/01, 1.2514/19, 1.2531, 1.2545, 1.2569/70, 1.2588/89, 1.2605, 1.2613, 1.2623/25, 1.2661/63, 1.2676, 1.2692/98, 1.2715, 1.2744/54, 1.2791/1.2805, 1.2815/21, 1.2834/79, 1.2900/04, 1.2919/21, and 1.2978/98.
Above: 1.3000/03, 1.3047, 1.3059/66, 1.3077, 1.3093/1.3109, 1.3126/30, 1.3152/65, 1.3172/77, 1.3187/1.3206, 1.3220/42, 1.3294/99, 1.3305/08, 1.3318/24, 1.3332/35, 1.3344/53, 1.3366, 1.3376/89, 1.3398/1.3416, 1.3432/44, 1.3451, 1.3473/82, 1.3489/1.3524, 1.3538, 1.3546/88, 1.3597, 1.3602/15, 1.3621/31, 1.3639/50, 1.3663/76, 1.3682/86, 1.3685/1.3710, 1.3714/16, 1.3731/39, 1.3748, 1.3758/74, 1.3784/98, 1.3807, 1.3810/20, 1.3824, 1.3832/36, 1.3845/54, 1.3864, 1.3875/78, 1.3888/92, 1.3905/14, 1.3937, 1.3947, 1.3966/69, 1.3993/1.4000, 1.4246, 1.4500/17, 1.4695, and 1.4939.
Support:
Initial: 1.1016/17, 1.1005/10, 1.0996/98, 1.0983/86, 1.0968, 1.0960, 1.0915/17, 1.0882/86, 1.0873, 1.0866, 1.0847, 1.0819/27, 1.0818, 1.0807, 1.0762/90, 1.0736, 1.0595, 1.0499 and 1.0461.
Below: 1.0206, 1.0104, 0.9607/21, 0.9599, 0.9451, 0.9338, 0.8840, 0.8822/28, 0.8594 and 0.8562.

USD/JPY: Higher
Resistance:
Initial: 121.02, 121.19/23, 121.27/38, 121.49, 121.62/65, 121.80/84, 121.96, 122.01, 122.44, 122.60/68, 122.86, 123.12, 123.42/49, 123.71/78, 123.95, 124.05, 124.11/14, 124.22, 124.35/38, 124.43/46, 125.06, 125.27 and 125.40.
Above: 125.67/75, 126.17, 126.41, 126.90, and 135.19.
Support:
Initial: 120.73/82, 120.56, 120.34/47, 120.17/26, 120.02, 119.95, 119.80, 119.61/65, 119.37/46, 119.21/28, 119.01, 118.85/97, 118.62/67, 118.23/45, 118.04/05, 117.93/99, 117.76, 117.43, 117.23, 116.82/117.02, 116.10/14 115.85, 115.56/58, 114.65, 112.98, 111.78, 111.60, 110.39/47, 110.08, 109.90, 109.53, 109.45, 108.98, 108.42, 108.24, 108.00, 107.38/39, 107.18, 107.05, 106.80, 106.24, 105.70, 105.41/43, 105.30/33, 105.18, 104.83/91, 104.63/68, 104.36, 104.07/26, 103.91, 103.82, 103.73/75, 103.37/43, 103.30, 102.92/103.08, 102.57/82, 102.49/52, 102.33/40, 102.26, 102.13/14, 101.90/102.04, 101.60/83, 101.50/56, 101.42/43, 101.30/32, 101.08/27, 100.82/86, 100.75, 100.60/65, 100.38/48, 100.22, and 100.00.
Below: 99.94, 99.66, 99.40, 99.25, 99.13/14, 99.00, 98.84/92, 98.63/72, 98.48/53, 98.28, 98.20, 98.08, 97.75/83, 97.49/63, 96.90/97.05, 96.81, 96.65/70, 96.55/56, 96.05, 95.79/80, 95.44, 94.90/95.07, 94.87, 94.55, 94.19, 94.05, 93.76, 93.78 93.68, 93.50, 93.17, 92.77/95, 92.14/30, 91.19, 90.85, 90.20/32, 89.40/66, 88.05, 87.95/99, and 87.79.

GBP/USD: Mildly Higher
Resistance:
Initial: 1.5382/84, 1.5392, 1.5403/40, 1.5457/58, 1.5476/85, 1.5498/99, 1.5505/08, 1.5514/20, 1.5529/33, 1.5538/51, 1.5561/68, 1.5584/96, 1.5601/19, 1.5624/27, 1.5646, 1.5656/58, 1.5669/74, 1.5683/92, 1.5714/17, 1.5725, 1.5750, 1.5763, 1.5775/89, 1.5803/07, 1.5817, 1.5825, 1.5844, 1.5853, 1.5874/77, 1.5886/93, 1.5900/27, 1.5948/61, 1.5975/94, 1.6001/08, 1.6051/66, 1.6071/83, 1.6096/98, 1.6109/21, 1.6130/36, 1.6155, 1.6161, 1.6177/83, 1.6195/98, 1.6204/16, 1.6222/26, 1.6237/46, 1.6251/62, 1.6280/90, 1.6298/1.6309, 1.6336, 1.6348, 1.6357, 1.6376, 1.6380/83, 1.6394, 1.6400, 1.6415/18, 1.6441/44, 1.6458/65, 1.6484, and 1.6496.
Above: 1.6516, 1.6524, 1.6534, 1.6548, 1.6576/86, 1.6592, 1.6611/17, 1.6624, 1.6640/56, 1.6665/67, 1.6683, 1.6692/98, 1.6716/24, 1.6730/37, 1.6745, 1.6755, 1.6765/68, 1.6777, 1.6785, 1.6800/02, 1.6812, 1.6819/22, 1.6831/44, 1.6874/87, 1.6902/09, 1.6919/20, 1.6951, 1.6960, 1.6995, 1.7000, 1.7010, 1.7035, 1.7042/51, 1.7058/62, 1.7084, 1.7094/99, 1.7107, 1.7130, 1.7167, 1.7176/78, 1.7190, and 1.7440.
Support:
Initial: 1.5313/51, 1.5304, 1.5293, 1.5276, 1.5260/68, 1.5236/39, 1.5208/23, 1.5195/99, 1.5185/87, 1.5173/80, 1.5152/64, 1.5130/36, 1.5123, 1.5101/06, 1.5092, 1.5081, 1.5072/77, 1.5056, 1.5026/33, 1.5013 and 1.5007.
Below: 1.4985/88, 1.4966/67, 1.4950, 1.4927, 1.4913, 1.4884, 1.4872, 1.4868, 1.4856, 1.4830, 1.4812, 1.4785, 1.4698, 1.4634, 1.4615, 1.4345 and 1.4232.

AUD/USD: Higher
Resistance:
Initial: 0.7266, 0.7271, 0.7279, 0.7295, 0.7302, 0.7338, 0.7343, 0.7362/65, 0.7370, 0.7379, 0.7393, 0.7413, 0.7444, 0.7469, 0.7487, 0.7504, 0.7559, 0.7590 0.7597/92, 0.7614, 0.7625, 0.7634, 0.7642/43, 0.7653, 0.7674, 0.7681, 0.7700/10, 0.7719/22, 0.7725, 0.7738/40, 0.7750/60, 0.7772/84, 0.7791/92, 0.7817, 0.7825, 0.7840/88, 0.7912, 0.7919, 0.7950, 0.7988, 0.8008, 0.8020, 0.8024/34, 0.8051, 0.8066/87, 0.8106, 0.8121, 0.8138, 0.8156, 0.8172, 0.8203/14, 0.8223, 0.8233, 0.8294, 0.8307, 0.8375, 0.8416, 0.8473/84, 0.8512, 0.8541, 0.8578, 0.8590, 0.8641, 0.8651/62, 0.8693, 0.8702, 0.8729, 0.8747/54, 0.8760/73, 0.8784, 0.8812, 0.8819/25, 0.8842/52, 0.8857/61, 0.8869, 0.8887/97, 0.8906/12, 0.8918/20, 0.8923/36, 0.8951/57, 0.8967/69, 0.8981/87, 0.8994/0.9010, 0.9035, 0.9041, 0.9042/48, 0.9054/57, 0.9061/66, 0.9072/79, 0.9102, 0.9110/19, 0.9127/37, 0.9147, 0.9162/67, 0.9179/89, 0.9200/08, 0.9214/26, 0.9232/74, 0.9286/94, 0.9304, 0.9311, 0.9328/34, 0.9343/53, 0.9359, 0.9386/0.9410, 0.9420/24, 0.9428/33, 0.9440/47, 0.9455/57, 0.9469 and 0.9483/86.
Above: 0.9500, 0.9524/27, 0.9536/42, 0.9571, 0.9585, 0.9592, 0.9620, 0.9640, 0.9664, 0.9676, 0.9689/96, 0.9710, 0.9732, 0.9757, 0.9791/94, 0.9841/96, 0.9900, 0.9925/83, 1.0000/18, 1.0052, 1.0099/1.0100, 1.0114/17, 1.0148/51, 1.0165/77, and 1.0181/82.
Support:
Initial: 0.7248, 0.7234, 0.7221, 0.7214/15, 0.7197, 0.7181, 0.7150, 0.7098, 0.7083, 0.7062/69, 0.7030, 0.7024, 0.6945, 0.6936/37, 0.6918, 0.6907, 0.6852, 0.6773, 0.6753, 0.6697, 0.6670 and 0.6555.
Below: 0.6339/41, 0.6317, 0.5804, 0.5795, 0.5730, 0.5645, 0.5490, 0.5399, 0.5228, 0.4815, and 0.4773.

USD/CAD: Mildly Higher
Resistance:
Initial: 1.3174, 1.3197, 1.3212, 1.3233, 1.3241, 1.3260/64, 1.3270, 1.3305/09, 1.3323/25, 1.3352, 1.3395, 1.3415, 1.3456, 1.3606, 1.3687, 1.3872 and 1.3993.
Above: 1.4006, 1.4035, 1.4195 and 1.4277.
Support:
Initial: 1.3136, 1.3115/16, 1.3101, 1.3099, 1.3079, 1.3062, 1.3039, 1.3021, 1.3007/14, 1.2994, 1.2985, 1.2970, 1.2935, 1.2900, 1.2830/34, 1.2822, 1.2797, 1.2772/78, 1.2696/94, 1.2662, 1.2631, 1.2625, 1.2615, 1.2613, 1.2609, 1.2585/91, 1.2563, 1.2537, 1.2471, 1.2456/61, 1.2448/58, 1.2436, 1.2421, 1.2406, 1.2386, 1.2378, 1.2361/66, 1.2351, 1.2333, 1.2287, 1.2244, 1.2126, 1.2091, 1.2045, 1.2030, 1.2016, 1.1976, 1.1933, 1.1886, 1.1872/75, 1.1841, 1.1802, 1.1794/96, 1.1723/29, 1.1670/72, 1.1666, 1.1547/90, 1.1475, 1.1457/65, 1.1443/47, 1.1391/92, 1.1384, 1.1331/39, 1.1310/12, 1.1289/95, 1.1263/77, 1.1254, 1.1221/29, 1.1190/94, 1.1168/73, 1.1158, 1.1152, 1.1141, 1.1116/32, 1.1102/09, 1.1097/99, 1.1081/89, 1.1069/70, 1.1030/53, 1.0982/1.1001, 1.0962/66, 1.0954/59, 1.0941/45, 1.0934, 1.0925/28, 1.0915, 1.0903/09, 1.0894,1.0873/86, 0852/59, 1.0849, 1.0839/40, 1.0820/27, 1.0813, 1.0793/96, 1.0742/85, 1.0736, 1.0726, 1.0717, 1.0702/09, 1.0693, 1.0668/79, 1.0646/60, 1.0619/29, 1.0608,1.0580/87, 1.0567/71, 1.0558/59, 1.0546, 1.0519/22, and 1.0506.
Below: 1.0496/1.0502, 1.0471/87, 1.0459, 1.0441/44, 1.0414/18, 1.0401/04, 1.0390/92, 1.0379, 1.0355/68, 1.0333, 1.0324, 1.0309/12, 1.0283/1.0305, 1.0270/76, 1.0262, 1.0244/55, 1.0233/35, 1.0199/1.0226, 1.0172/82, 1.0165, 1.0151/56, 1.0148, 1.0128/42, 1.0103/05, 1.0081/99, 1.0050/56, 1.0029/34, 1.0018, 1.0012, 0.9993/98, 0.9984, 0.9969, 0.9945/60, 0.9931, 0.9922, 0.9902/07, 0.9899, 0.9858, 0.9814/26, 0.9724/99, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9631, 0.9525, 0.9445, and 0.9405.

NZD/USD: Mildly Higher
Resistance:
Initial: 0.6806, 0.6838/44, 0.6863, 0.6895, 0.6923, 0.6966, 0.7051, 0.7076, 0.7102, 0.7112, 0.7174, 0.7199, 0.7213, 0.7230, 0.7273, 0.7305, 0.7312, 0.7331/36, 0.7368, 0.7394, 0.7404, 0.7419/20, 0.7433, 0.7440/47, 0.7455/59, 0.7467, 0.7484/0.7500, 0.7528/55, 0.7585/95, 0.7609, 0.7605/59, 0.7679/97, 0.7705/35, 0.7751/58, 0.7760/64, 0.7763, 0.7779/83, 0.7791/95, 0.7804/08, 0.7819/29, 0.7838/48, 0.7856/57, 0.7863/78, 0.7888, 0.7903/06, 0.7925/37, 0.7967, 0.7989/0.8013, 0.8030, 0.8040, 0.8049/60, 0.8075/82, 0.8100/09, 0.8114/37, 0.8147/53, 0.8160/76, 0.8186, 0.8195/97, 0.8204/14, 0.8221/41, 0.8250/55, 0.8263, 0.8268/71, 0.8280, 0.8285/87, 0.8291/95, 0.8302/16, 0.8322/66, 0.8376, 0.8389, 0.8406, 0.8413, 0.8421/61, 0.8472/79, 0.8487/89, and 0.8499.
Above: 0.8504/18, 0.8523/37, 0.8542/53, 0.8560/61, 0.8571/78, 0.8584/90, 0.8602/05, 0.8633/41, 0.8647/53, 0.8660/67, 0.8671/74, 0.8693/0.8700, 0.8712/18, 0.8734, 0.8744, 0.8764/77, 0.8789, 0.8792, 0.8821, 0.8834, and 0.8840.
Support:
Initial: 0.6734/38, 0.6720, 0.6706, 0.6693/96, 0.6679, 0.6639, 0.6616, 0.6609, 0.6599, 0.6591, 0.6585, 0.6557, 0.6538, 0.6504, 0.6466, 0.6448/55, 0.6435, 0.6423/24, 0.6400/07, 0.6396, 0.6382/88, 0.6287, 0.6269, 0.6254, 0.6248, 0.6242 and 0.6234.
Below: 0.6022, 0.5991, 0.5926, 0.5914, 0.5682, 0.5673, 0.5608, 0.5637/41, 0.5480, and 0.5324.

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.