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Just-released data from the Federal Reserve showed yet another robust 7% annualized monthly increase in consumer credit in January. The rise was again concentrated in non-revolving credit which surged 10% on the month. As today’s Hot Chart shows, non-revolving credit (70% of credit outstanding) has been the only source of growth in the past year as revolving credit (credit cards for the most part) continues to stall. This being said, the bulk of the increase in non-revolving credit is not going towards purchases of durable goods. Student loans remain the primary driver of consumer credit growth with a 24% annual gain. Were it not for them, nonrevolving credit would actually have been up only 2.9%. The surge in student loans, which now account for 28% of total nonrevolving credit outstanding, has dramatically altered the credit landscape. As shown, the Federal government, which originates most of student loans, actually surpassed depository institutions in January as a primary holder of nonrevolving credit. Needless to say, the surge in student debt could become a significant problem down the road, if labour markets fail to provide employment for younger workers.
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