US Dollar Declines as Fed Signals Potential Rate Cut, Inflation Eases

www.investing.com/analysis/us-dollar-declines-as-fed-signals-potential-rate-cut-inflation-eases-200649187

By Andrey Goilov | Jun 13, 2024 05:21AM ET

Saved. See Saved Items.

This article has already been saved in your Saved Items

EUR/USD

+0.00%

Add to/Remove from Watchlist

The EUR/USD pair is holding steady around 1.0805 on Thursday, following a surge in volatility the previous evening. The Federal Reserve concluded its meeting with a neutral stance, maintaining the interest rate at 5.25% per annum as anticipated. The Fed's comments hinted at a possible interest rate cut by December while projecting more aggressive rate reductions for 2025, which the market viewed positively.

However, it was the US inflation data that significantly impacted the EUR/USD pair, more so than the Fed's announcement. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May showed a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, down from 3.4% in the previous month. On a month-on-month basis, the CPI was flat, compared to a 0.3% increase in April. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also decreased to 3.4% year-on-year, surpassing expectations. This decline in price pressures followed unexpectedly robust employment market reports.

Investors have been highly reactive to each successive set of statistics, partly because the Fed has emphasised the significance of these data releases in shaping its monetary policy decisions. Following the inflation report, the EUR/USD briefly spiked to 1.0852 before retreating slightly.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD forecast

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD surged past the consolidation range on the news, executing a correction wave to 1.0851. Currently, a downward impulse has brought it to 1.0800. We anticipate the formation of a consolidation range around this level. A downward breakout could lead to a further decline to 1.0776, potentially extending to 1.0701. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line positioned below zero and pointing downward.

EUR/USD forecast

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has completed a decline to 1.0800. A corrective movement to 1.0826 may occur, testing from below. Following this correction, a new downward wave is expected to target 1.0766, with a continuation towards 1.0706 likely. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 20, suggests an upward move to 80, confirming the potential for this bearish trajectory.

Market outlook

As the market digests the implications of the latest US economic data and the Federal Reserve's statements, fluctuations in the EUR/USD pair will likely continue. Investors should remain vigilant and prepared for further volatility as more economic indicators are released and the Fed's monetary policy evolves.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author's particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Week Ahead – US CPI Set to Ease, BoC to Probably Cut Again By Trading Point - Mar 07, 2025

As investors attempt to keep up with the daily shift in President Trump’s tariff policies, the February CPI report out of the United States on Wednesday will likely come as a...

USD/JPY: Yen Extends Gains, Markets Eye US Nonfarm Payrolls By Kenny Fisher - Mar 07, 2025

Japanese yen extends rally for a third consecutive day BoJ’s Uchida says rate hikes still on the table despite tariff concerns US nonfarm payrolls expected to edge slightly The...

EUR/USD Faces Key Test as NFP Looms—Will 1.0800 Hold? By Andrey Goilov - Mar 07, 2025

EUR/USD is trading near 1.0806 on Friday, maintaining its position despite failing to extend its gains further. Investors’ focus is on February’s upcoming US employment data,...

Add a Comment

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:

Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.
Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.
Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
Only English comments will be allowed.
Any comment you publish, together with your investing.com profile, will be public on investing.com and may be indexed and available through third party search engines, such as Google.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

I have read Investing.com's comments guidelines and agree to the terms described.

I Agree

Write your thoughts here

Are you sure you want to delete this chart?

Delete Cancel

Post

Post also to:

Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?

Replace Cancel

1000

Comment Guidelines

Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.

Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.

Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.

<div id="comment">
				<div class="comment js-comment" data-comment-id="{commentID}" id="comment-{commentID}" data-user-id="">
    <div class="mainComment js-content">
       <div class="commentInnerWrapper">
        <a href="{userLink}" class="js-user-link"><img src="{userImage}" width="33" height="33" alt="{usernameAlt}" class="img" onerror="this.src='https://i-invdn-com.investing.com/defaultUserMaleTmp.png';"></a><div class="commentBody">
                					<span class="commentUsername">
                    	<a href="{userLink}" class="js-user-link js-user-name">{username}</a>
					</span>
                                <span class="js-date" comment-date="{dateFormat}" comment-date-formatted="{dateFormatted}" title="{dateTitle}">Just Now</span>
                <div class="commentDropDown js-commentDropDownWrapper " data-user-id="" data-cid="{commentID}">
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="threeDotsIconSmall js-thinDropdownArrow"></a>
	<div class="tooltipPopup commentActionsPop noHeader js-commentDropDownOptions displayNone">
		<div class="addRow js-option share">
			<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="js-commentSharePopup" data-cid="{commentID}" data-curl="{commentLink}"><span class="smallShareIcon middle"></span>Share</a>
		</div>

<div class="js-option addRow follow">
            <div class="js-follow-post-button" data-reg_ep="follow comment">
                <span class="alertfollowIcon middle"></span>Follow this post            </div>
            <div class="js-unfollow-post-button displayNoneImp">
                <span class="alertUnfollowIcon middle"></span>Unfollow this post            </div>
        </div>

<div class="addRow js-option save"  data-reg_ep="save comment">
		<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="js-save-item-btn" data-item-type="comments" data-item-id="{commentID}">
			<i class="saveItemBigIcon middle"></i>
			Save		</a>
	</div>
	<div class="addRow saveItemsConfirmation noHover displayNone js-saveItemResult">
		
<div class="content js-saveItemSuccess displayNone">
	<span class="mediumGreenSuccessIcon"></span><span>Saved. See <a href="/members-admin/saved-items" target="_blank">Saved Items</a>.</span>
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="bugCloseIcon js-close"></a>
</div>
<div class="content js-saveItemAlreadySaved saveItemAlreadySaved displayNoneImp">
	<span>This comment has already been saved in your <a href="/members-admin/saved-items" target="_blank">Saved Items</a></span>
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="bugCloseIcon js-close"></a>
</div>
	</div>

<div class="addRow shareButtons js-sharePopup displayNone">
			<div class="js-shareComment"><span class="js-shareCommentSpan"></span></div>
		</div>
	</div>
</div>
                 <div class="commentAuthor js-comment-by-author"><span class="commentAuthorIcon"></span>Author's response</div>             </div>
		<div id="commentText-{commentID}" class="js-text-wrapper commentText withImage">
							<div id="commentBigChart{commentID}" class="commentBigChart js-comment-chart" onclick="openViewChartPopup('{commentID}')">
					<img src="https://d1-invdn-com.investing.com/comments_images/{commentImage}" alt="{commentAlt}">
					<i class="newMagnifyChartIcon"></i>
				</div>
						<span class="js-text">{commentContent}</span>
			<div class="clear"></div>
							<div class="commentButtons js-not-master-user">
					<a href="javascript:void(0)" class="reply js-reply-btn" data-real-parent-id="{commentID}" data-to-user-name="{username}" data-to-user-id="">Reply</a>
					<div class="inlineblock likeDislikeBox js-like-dislike-box" data-item-id="{commentID}">
	<input class="js-like-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="Yes" id="like_{commentID}">
	<label for="like_{commentID}" class="like" title="I agree"></label>
	<span class="numOfLikes js-like-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
	<input class="js-dislike-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="No" id="dislike_{commentID}">
	<label for="dislike_{commentID}" class="dislike" title="I disagree"></label>
	<span class="numOfDislikes js-dislike-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
</div>

<div class="reportComment js-flag float_lang_base_2">
                            <a href="javascript:void(0);" id="commentFlag_{commentID}">
                                <span class="reportCommentIcon middle"></span><span class="inlineblock middle">Report</span>
                            </a>
                        </div>
                    				</div>
					</div>
	   </div>
	</div>
	</div>			</div>
			<div id="reply">
				
    <div class="commentReply js-comment js-comment-reply" data-comment-id="{commentID}" id="comment-{commentID}" data-user-id="">
		<div class="commentInnerWrapper"><a href="{userLink}" class="js-user-link"><img src="{userImage}" width="33" height="33" alt="{usernameAlt}" class="img" onerror="this.src='https://i-invdn-com.investing.com/defaultUserMaleTmp.png';"></a><div class="commentBody js-content">
            				<span class="commentUsername">
					<a href="{userLink}" class="commentUsername js-user-link js-user-name" onMouseOver="">{username}</a>
				</span>
                        <span class="js-date" comment-date="{dateFormat}" comment-date-formatted="{dateFormatted}" title="{dateTitle}">Just Now</span>
			 <div class="commentAuthor js-comment-by-author"><span class="commentAuthorIcon"></span>Author's response</div> 			<div class="commentDropDown js-commentDropDownWrapper " data-user-id="" data-cid="{commentID}">
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="threeDotsIconSmall js-thinDropdownArrow"></a>
	<div class="tooltipPopup commentActionsPop noHeader js-commentDropDownOptions displayNone">
		<div class="addRow js-option share">
			<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="js-commentSharePopup" data-cid="{commentID}" data-curl="{commentLink}"><span class="smallShareIcon middle"></span>Share</a>
		</div>

</div>
		<div id="commentText-{commentID}" class="js-text-wrapper commentText withImage">
							<div id="commentBigChart{commentID}" class="replyBigChart displayNone js-comment-chart">
					<img src="https://d1-invdn-com.investing.com/comments_images/{commentImage}" alt="{commentAlt}">
					<i class="newMagnifyChartIcon"></i>
				</div>
				<span id="commentSmallChart{commentID}" class="commentSmallChart pointer js-comment-chart" onclick="openViewChartPopup('{commentID}')">
                    <img src="https://d1-invdn-com.investing.com/comments_images/{commentImageSmall}" width="116" height="52" alt="{commentAlt}">
                    <span class="chartMagnifyOverlay displayNone"></span>
                    <span class="searchGlassIcon chartMagnify displayNone"></span>
                </span>
						<span class="js-text">{commentContent}</span>
			<div class="clear"></div>
							<div class="commentButtons js-not-master-user">
					<a href="javascript:void(0)" class="reply js-reply-btn" data-real-parent-id="{commentID}" data-to-user-name="{username}" data-to-user-id="">Reply</a>
					<div class="inlineblock likeDislikeBox js-like-dislike-box" data-item-id="{commentID}">
	<input class="js-like-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="Yes" id="like_{commentID}">
	<label for="like_{commentID}" class="like" title="I agree"></label>
	<span class="numOfLikes js-like-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
	<input class="js-dislike-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="No" id="dislike_{commentID}">
	<label for="dislike_{commentID}" class="dislike" title="I disagree"></label>
	<span class="numOfDislikes js-dislike-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
</div>

Are you sure you want to delete this chart?

Delete Cancel

Post

Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?

Replace Cancel

1000

Comment Guidelines

Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.

Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.

I feel that this comment is:

Spam

Offensive

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review

Central Banks

Interest Rates

Next Meeting

FED

4.50%

Mar 19, 2025

ECB

2.65%

Apr 17, 2025

BOE

4.50%

Mar 20, 2025

SNB

0.50%

Mar 20, 2025

RBA

4.10%

Apr 01, 2025

BOC

3.00%

Mar 12, 2025

RBNZ

3.75%

Apr 09, 2025

BOJ

0.50%

Mar 19, 2025

CBR

21.00%

Mar 21, 2025

RBI

6.25%

Mar 10, 2025

PBOC

3.10%

BCB

13.25%

Mar 19, 2025

US 30	42,768.5	+189.7	+0.45%
US 500	5,764.8	+26.3	+0.46%
Dow Jones	42,801.72	+222.64	+0.52%
S&P 500	5,770.20	+31.68	+0.55%
Nasdaq	18,196.22	+126.97	+0.70%
S&P 500 VIX	23.37	-1.50	-6.03%
Dollar Index	103.810	-0.220	-0.21%

Crude Oil WTI	67.04	+0.68	+1.02%
Brent Oil	70.36	+0.90	+1.30%
Natural Gas	4.399	+0.097	+2.32%
Gold	2,914.10	-12.50	-0.43%
Silver	32.809	-0.529	-1.59%
Copper	4.7100	-0.0975	-2.08%
US Soybeans	1,025.00	-2.25	-0.22%

U.S. 10Y	4.304	+0.025	+0.70%
U.S. 30Y	4.601	+0.022	+0.44%
U.S. 5Y	4.083	+0.025	+0.74%
U.S. 3M	4.303	+0.002	+0.00%
US 10Y T-Note	110.55	-0.23	-0.21%
Euro Bund	127.66	-0.81	-0.63%
10-2 Yield Spread	30.34	-0.98	-3.13%

Apple	239.07	+3.74	+1.59%
NVIDIA	112.69	+2.12	+1.92%
Alphabet A	173.86	+1.51	+0.88%
Tesla	262.67	-0.78	-0.30%
Amazon.com	199.25	-1.45	-0.72%
Netflix	891.11	-15.25	-1.68%
Meta Platforms	625.66	-2.27	-0.36%

US Dollar Declines as Fed Signals Potential Rate Cut, Inflation Eases

Related Articles