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S&P 500: Consolidation in the Cards Following Recent Rally

By Sunshine Profits (Paul Rejczak)Stock MarketsOct 12, 2023 09:13AM ET

www.investing.com/analysis/sp-500-consolidation-in-the-cards-following-recent-rally-200642642

By Sunshine Profits (Paul Rejczak) | Oct 12, 2023 09:13AM ET

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Stocks fluctuated following their recent rally – will the uptrend continue?

The S&P 500 index gained 0.43% yesterday as it basically went sideways following the recent advance. Stocks were gaining since last Friday and the monthly jobs data release. The index bounced from 4,220 level and on Tuesday it traded as high as 4,385.

Recently the broad stock market index retraced some of the declines, but eventually, it went below the 4,300 level again. Last Friday it went back above it. There’s still a lot of uncertainty about monetary policy, economic growth, and geopolitics.

Stocks are expected to open 0.2% higher this morning. So the market is rather calm following the CPI release. The Consumer Price Index has been slightly higher than expected at +0.4% m/m. The S&P 500 continues to trade within its Sept. 21 daily gap down of 4,375.70-4,401.38 as we can see on the daily chart:

SPX-Daily Chart

Futures Contract Remains Above 4,400

Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. Last week on Tuesday it reached new low of around 4,235 before bouncing back above the 4,300 level. This morning it’s trading above the 4,400 level. The resistance level is at 4,420-4,440 and the support level remains at 4,350.

S&P 500 Emini Futures-1-Hour Chart

Conclusion

The S&P 500 will likely open 0.2% higher today. It may see some more short-term uncertainty and continue to fluctuate below the 4,400 level. For now, it looks like a flat correction within a short-term uptrend. The market will be waiting for the coming quarterly earnings announcements.

Here’s the breakdown:

Stock prices may continue to fluctuate following the CPI release.
The S&P 500 trades within its late September daily gap down; it is acting as a resistance level.
In my opinion, the short-term outlook is still bullish.

Thank you.

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US 30	42,768.5	+189.7	+0.45%
US 500	5,764.8	+26.3	+0.46%
Dow Jones	42,801.72	+222.64	+0.52%
S&P 500	5,770.20	+31.68	+0.55%
Nasdaq	18,196.22	+126.97	+0.70%
S&P 500 VIX	23.37	-1.50	-6.03%
Dollar Index	103.81	-0.22	-0.21%

Crude Oil WTI	67.04	+0.68	+1.02%
Brent Oil	70.36	+0.90	+1.30%
Natural Gas	4.399	+0.097	+2.32%
Gold	2,914.10	-12.50	-0.43%
Silver	32.809	-0.529	-1.59%
Copper	4.7100	-0.0975	-2.08%
US Soybeans	1,025.00	-2.25	-0.22%

U.S. 10Y	4.304	+0.025	+0.70%
U.S. 30Y	4.601	+0.022	+0.44%
U.S. 5Y	4.083	+0.025	+0.74%
U.S. 3M	4.303	+0.002	+0.00%
US 10Y T-Note	110.55	-0.23	-0.21%
Euro Bund	127.66	-0.81	-0.63%
10-2 Yield Spread	31.32	+4.15	+15.27%

Apple	239.07	+3.74	+1.59%
NVIDIA	112.69	+2.12	+1.92%
Alphabet A	173.86	+1.51	+0.88%
Tesla	262.67	-0.78	-0.30%
Amazon.com	199.25	-1.45	-0.72%
Netflix	891.11	-15.25	-1.68%
Meta Platforms	625.66	-2.27	-0.36%

	Interest Rates	Next Meeting
FED	4.50%	Mar 19, 2025
ECB	2.65%	Apr 17, 2025
BOE	4.50%	Mar 20, 2025
SNB	0.50%	Mar 20, 2025
RBA	4.10%	Apr 01, 2025
BOC	3.00%	Mar 12, 2025
RBNZ	3.75%	Apr 09, 2025
BOJ	0.50%	Mar 19, 2025
CBR	21.00%	Mar 21, 2025
RBI	6.25%	Mar 10, 2025
PBOC	3.10%
BCB	13.25%	Mar 19, 2025

S&P 500: Consolidation in the Cards Following Recent Rally

Futures Contract Remains Above 4,400

Conclusion

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