Royal Caribbean Or Carnival: Which Is A Better Cruise Stock?

According to a report by Florida-Caribbean Cruise Association (FCCA), 2017 has been a prosperous year for the cruise industry. In line with the industry’s growth, leading U.S. cruise companies — Carnival (LON:CCL) Corp. (NYSE:CCL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL) — are trying out different strategies to drive growth. The companies are also leaving no stone unturned to cash in on the lucrative opportunities in China.

By 2020, China’s cruise market is projected to grow to 4.5 million passengers, up from 1 million in 2015, per data by the Chinese Ministry of Transport. To tap into the prospects, Royal Caribbean is directing its technologically advanced ships to the rapidly growing cruise market of the country. Meanwhile, Carnival has entered into a joint venture with China’s largest shipbuilder — China State Shipbuilding Corp. — to place an order for two cruise ships.

With both the companies carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), let’s find out which company is placed better with respect to other parameters.

Price Performance and Valuation

While the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services Industry has gained 25.8% so far this year, Royal Caribbean has rallied 52.4%. Carnival’s gain of 26.6% has also surpassed that of the industry. Meanwhile, a look at the EV/EBIT ratio shows that the valuation of the companies is stretched.

The most suitable ratio to evaluate these cruise lines is EV/EBIT. This metric is commonly used for several media sub groups as well as chemicals, gaming, bus and rail industries. This ratio is also preferred over EBITDA because of the wide difference in the companies’ asset financing patterns.

We note that for the industry as a whole, the EV/EBIT ratio stands at 13.53, slightly undervalued when compared to the S&P 500’s 14.6x.

The cruise lines are overvalued when compared with the broader industry. However, Carnival has an edge here with a lower EV/EBIT value of 14.7, compared to Royal Caribbean’s 19.8x.

Debt Ratio

Since the sector has high financial leverage, the debt-to-asset ratio comes into the picture. This measures the ability of a company to service long-term debt. Hospitality stocks should ideally have lower debt ratios, implying higher proportion of the company’s assets over the long term.

Here, Carnival is at an advantage with a debt ratio of 22.6% compared with Royal Caribbean’s 34.4%. The industry average for the same is 28.5%.

Earnings History, ESP and Estimate Revision

Royal Caribbean and Carnival have beat earnings in each of the last four quarters. While Royal Caribbean has an average positive earnings surprise of 3.15%, Carnival’s average is 9.71%. However, Royal Caribbean’s Earnings ESPof +0.18% lends it an edge over Carnival, which has an Earnings ESP of -4.48%.

For the current year, Royal Caribbean’s earnings are expected to grow 21.6%, higher than Carnival’s projected EPS growth of 7.2%.

Looking at earnings estimate revisions, Royal Caribbean and Carnival have unchanged revisions over the past month.

Net Margin

Traditionally, gross margin for cruise companies is comparatively higher as majority of the expenses comes from cost of operations and not cost of goods sold.

However, the sector’s profits are not very high which is best captured by net profit margin or net margin. The industry’s trailing twelve-month net margin is 12.6, while that for Carnival and Royal Caribbean are 18.4% and 15.5%, respectively.

It is to be noted that Royal Caribbean’s profit-driving initiatives have helped the company drive margins higher than Carnival.

Final Thoughts

Our comparative analysis shows that although Carnival has an edge over Royal Caribbean, debt ratio and higher projected EPS growth put Royal Caribbean in the lead. Also, in terms of margins and share price movement, Royal Caribbean has clearly outperformed Carnival.

Stocks to Consider

Two better-ranked stocks in the industry are H.I.S. CO LTD HISJF and International Speedway Corp. (NASDAQ:ISCA) , both carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

H.I.S’ current-year earnings are projected to grow 194.4%, while that of International Speedway’s are expected to increase 7.1%.

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