No Exit For Now

By The National Bank of CanadaCurrenciesNov 05, 2013 06:14AM ET

www.investing.com/analysis/no-exit-for-now-190635

No Exit For Now

By The National Bank of Canada | Nov 05, 2013 06:14AM ET

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With economic data continuing to disappoint, central banks in the developed world are finding it difficult to exit or even pare back stimulative monetary policies. The tapering of the Fed’s asset purchase program, which until very recently was viewed as imminent, now seems to have been delayed to next year thanks to weak US growth and a deceleration in employment creation. And with economic slack opening up rather than narrowing down in the last couple of quarters, the Bank of Canada finally threw in the towel and abandoned its tightening bias, a feature in its statements for over a year. On the other side of the Atlantic, with credit contraction threatening to derail the recovery, the European Central Bank looks poised to add stimulus rather than withdraw it, more so with inflation continuing to drop. Ditto for the Bank of Japan which has yet to meet its inflation target. We expect Fed tapering to start only in Q1 of next year, something that should allow the US dollar to regain some strength relative to most majors. We have adjusted our near term yuan forecasts to reflect October’s ascent, but have left our other targets largely unchanged.

The Canadian dollar took it on the chin when the Bank of Canada abandoned its tightening bias in October. While the currency should continue to slide towards our end-of-Q1 USDCAD target of 1.06, we remain upbeat about the loonie’s longer term outlook, expecting it to return to stronger than parity with the greenback by the end of 2014.

NBF Currency Outlook

To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below.

No Exit For Now

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Central Banks

Interest Rates

Next Meeting

FED

4.50%

Mar 19, 2025

ECB

2.65%

Apr 17, 2025

BOE

4.50%

Mar 20, 2025

SNB

0.50%

Mar 20, 2025

RBA

4.10%

Apr 01, 2025

BOC

3.00%

Mar 12, 2025

RBNZ

3.75%

Apr 09, 2025

BOJ

0.50%

Mar 19, 2025

CBR

21.00%

Mar 21, 2025

RBI

6.25%

Mar 10, 2025

PBOC

3.10%

BCB

13.25%

Mar 19, 2025

US 30	42,768.5	+189.7	+0.45%
US 500	5,764.8	+26.3	+0.46%
Dow Jones	42,801.72	+222.64	+0.52%
S&P 500	5,770.20	+31.68	+0.55%
Nasdaq	18,196.22	+126.97	+0.70%
S&P 500 VIX	23.37	-1.50	-6.03%
Dollar Index	103.810	-0.220	-0.21%

Crude Oil WTI	67.04	+0.68	+1.02%
Brent Oil	70.36	+0.90	+1.30%
Natural Gas	4.399	+0.097	+2.32%
Gold	2,914.10	-12.50	-0.43%
Silver	32.809	-0.529	-1.59%
Copper	4.7100	-0.0975	-2.08%
US Soybeans	1,025.00	-2.25	-0.22%

U.S. 10Y	4.304	+0.025	+0.70%
U.S. 30Y	4.601	+0.022	+0.44%
U.S. 5Y	4.083	+0.025	+0.74%
U.S. 3M	4.303	+0.002	+0.00%
US 10Y T-Note	110.55	-0.23	-0.21%
Euro Bund	127.66	-0.81	-0.63%
10-2 Yield Spread	30.34	-0.98	-3.13%

Apple	239.07	+3.74	+1.59%
NVIDIA	112.69	+2.12	+1.92%
Alphabet A	173.86	+1.51	+0.88%
Tesla	262.67	-0.78	-0.30%
Amazon.com	199.25	-1.45	-0.72%
Netflix	891.11	-15.25	-1.68%
Meta Platforms	625.66	-2.27	-0.36%

No Exit For Now

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