Market Overview

Buy a 1Y1Y SEK payer swaption with strike 2% (20bp above ATMF). Sell a 1Y1YEUR payer swaption with strike 0.80% (10bp above ATMF).The Riksbank in a much stronger position than the ECB. The current 3M...

Market Movers ahead The deadline for a US budget deal for FY 2014 is Monday evening, and the risk of a government shutdown from Tuesday has increased. We expect a significant rebound in US job...

Better organised than it was two years ago, and with a less fragile periphery, the eurozone has increased its chances of seeing the economic recovery continue. This would mark the beginning of an...

Although growth is accelerating, it remains in line with its long-term potential, which is not strong enough to substantially reduce over-capacities. The unemployment rate is falling, but neither...

Since the beginning of the year, GDP growth has accelerated to about 1% q/q on the back of very loose monetary conditions and fiscal policy. Monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative, but the...

Good news has been accumulating for several months. Growth accelerated in Q2, and surveys show a real improvement in future prospects. Less uncertainty over the euro zone economy has apparently...

Following general elections on 22 September, the Christian Democratic Union get very close to a super-majority its best score in more than 20 years. Nonetheless it lost its traditional ally the FDP...

With the 0.5% rebound in growth during the second quarter, plus the tangible improvement in confidence indicators over the past four to five months, more and more signs of economic recovery have been...

After more or less stabilising in Q2, the Spanish economy should start to recover from Q3 thanks to exports. PMI indices for August moved up above the expansion threshold in both industry and...

Fine-tuning economic policyThe long-awaited rebound in growth finally occurred in Q2 2013 thanks to an upturn in investment. Yet signs of a slowdown have already appeared in Q3 2013. Deteriorating...

Private consumption alone is supporting growth. In the absence of other growth drivers, the economy is struggling to deliver even 2% growth. The government intends to launch infrastructure projects to...

India, alongside Indonesia, was the Asian country hit hardest by massive capital outflows this summer. Several factors fuelled this capital flight, including the country’s external vulnerability...

Economic indicators published this summer signal a slight rebound in growth. Assuming world trade conditions improve and there is clearer support from fiscal policy, real GDP growth should pick up in...

Despite the relapse of the past quarters, the Irish economy is on track to a lasting recovery. The real estate bubble has been completely absorbed, the unemployment rate has begun to decline and PMI...