Market Overview

Last week was all about financial factors, primarily interest rates. But this week was all about the real economy, notably the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike and the pending government shutdown....

The week promises a plethora of economic data, starting this morning with the ISM manufacturing data at 10 AM. This will be followed by Jay Powell participating in a roundtable discussion with Philly...

We do not want to walk down the political aisle. Nonetheless, what person can turn their heads away from the Sunday deadline on funding the government?The aftermath of a shutdown will most likely...

Anytime during the trading day in the last few weeks, when the 10-year Treasury yield moved to multi-year highs, the dollar strengthened, and stocks got wobbly.I don’t really have an opinion on...

The PCE price index increased by 0.4% vs. an estimated 0.5% monthly. Likewise, the core PCE price index increased by 0.1% vs. an estimated 0.2%.The Fed’s decision to maintain the interest rate...

USThis will be a busy week in the US with a looming government shutdown, an expanding UAW strike, a lot of Fed speak, and an NFP report that could show hiring fell to the lowest levels since early...

The Fed’s “soft landing” hopes are likely overly optimistic. Such was the context of our recent report, which discussed the long record of the Fed’s economic growth...

On Thursday, the South African rand (ZAR) was the best-performing currency among the 20 global currencies we track, while the Turkish lira (TRY) showed the weakest results. The Australian dollar was...

Stocks closed higher yesterday, with the S&P 500 rising by around 60 bps. Bond yields also stabilized, with the 10-year falling by three bps to close about 4.57%.The day saw a lot of volatility in...

On Wednesday, the Turkish lira (TRY) was the best-performing currency among the 20 global currencies we track, while the Brazilian real (BRL) showed the weakest results. The US dollar was the leader...

Dollar extends gains on ‘higher for longer’ narrativeDollar/yen nears 150 zone, risk of intervention risesOil skyrockets as US inventories tumbleWall street closes mixed despite rally in...

Stocks were in for a wild trading day, with the S&P 500 firmly in a negative gamma regime. It means that wild swings will persist as long as this case, and there was a pretty good example of that...

SPX Monitoring purposes; Short SPX on 9/1/23 at 4515.77; cover short 9/5/23 at 4496.83 = gain .43%.Gain since 12/20/22=15.93%. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX (NYSE:GDX) on 10/9/20 at 40.78. The...

One thing I’ve stopped worrying very much about is a government shutdown. It could even be a good thing, given the bloated deficit, except for the fact that the government basically keeps...