Iron Mountain (IRM) Down 13.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Iron Mountain (IRM). Shares have lost about 13.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Iron Mountain due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Iron Mountain's Q4 FFO and Revenues Beat Estimates

Iron Mountain reported fourth-quarter 2019 normalized FFO per share of 65 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 63 cents. The reported figure also compared favorably with the year-ago quarter’s 56 cents.

Revenues of $1.08 billion inched up 1.7% year over year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.07 billion. However, excluding the impact of foreign exchange, total revenues are up 2.7% year over year.

Results reflect decent organic volume trends and positive contribution from revenue management across all geographies. However, Service revenues were negatively impacted by paper prices. The company is also on track in shifting its mix to faster-growing businesses, which increased to 24% of the company’ sales, up from the 9% witnessed six years ago.

Adjusted FFO (AFFO) increased 17.7% year over year to $228 million.

For full-year 2019, Iron Mountain reported normalized FFO per share of $2.29, up from the prior year’s $2.26. This was backed by a 0.9% year-on-year increase in revenues to $4.26 billion. The tally, however, increased 3% excluding the impact of foreign exchange.

Quarter Details

Storage revenues came in at $676 million in the December-end quarter, highlighting a 3.5% year-on-year increase on a constant currency basis. The company recorded 2.5% organic growth, year on year.

Service revenues amounted to $404 million in the reported quarter, indicating a year-over-year increase of 1.5% on a constant currency basis. However, organic Service revenues edged down 0.7%, marred by paper prices.

Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 190 basis points (bps) to 35.8%.

Guidance

Iron Mountain has issued its guidance for 2020. The company projects revenues at $4,375-$4,475 million, denoting a 3-5% change, year on year, and adjusted EBITDA of $1,520-$1,570, suggesting a 6-9% increase from the prior-year level. Further, AFFO is estimated in the range of $930-$960 million, indicating 9-12% year-on-year growth.

Project Summit Update

Iron Mountain’s transformation program — Project Summit — focuses on simplifying its global structure, streamlining managerial structure for the future and enhancing customer experience.

Project Summit is anticipated to deliver annual adjusted EBITDA benefits of $200 million. Considerably, all of the benefits will be realized by 2022, with $80 million of benefits projected to be delivered in 2020. The total cost to implement the program is estimated to be approximately $240 million over the next two years, inclusive of roughly $50 million charge incurred in fourth-quarter 2019. Moreover, the company estimates that the 2020 restructuring charge would be around $130 million, with associated benefit commencing in the second half of this year.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Estimates revision followed a downward path over the past two months. The consensus estimate has shifted -5.09% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Iron Mountain has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Iron Mountain has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.