Greenback Still Determined, Looking Ahead To US Q1 GDP And FOMC

The cable could have 12 green days in the past 13 days of trading reaching today 1.5309, despite the release of UK Q1 GDP which has showing growth by only 2.4% year on year, after growth by 3% in the fourth quarter of 2014, while the median forecast was referring to 2.6% expansion.

The greenback looked losing momentum in the recent days, before the FOMC meeting outcome which will come tomorrow after the preliminary release of US Q1 GDP which is expected to show annualized expansion by only 1% after growth by 2.2% in the fourth quarter of last year.

The Fed has paid attention recently to the US economic slowdown in first quarter of this year raising the odd of keeping the interest rate at the current level for longer time.

While the interest rate outlook has been already under pressure recently following the disappointing release of US labor report of March driving the US Treasuries yields down significantly, while the consuming spending in US was worrying the investors, after the release of weaker than expected retail sales in March.

From another side, the greenback appreciation and the oil prices deterioration since the end of the first half of last year could weigh down on the inflation upside risks keeping US PCE and also US CPI standing yearly near the zero level.

US PCE which is the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation rose by 0.3% y/y in February, after edging up in January by only 0.2% to be the weakest pace of rising since October 2009, While Mar US CPI has dropped by 0.1%, while the consensus was pointing to no yearly change as the same as February.

After getting rid of "the patience stance" on Mar. 18 meeting, The Fed has put instead of it cautiousness stance and care of the inflation downside risks in its economic assessment.

The FOMC members' median forecast of the interest rate went down in the previous meeting to be 0.625% only for the end of this year from 1.125% they were expecting last December and also their interest rate median forecast of next year end plummeted to 1.875% from 2.5% they have anticipated last December to dampen the greenback from another side physically.

Before the dovish release of US non-farm payrolls of March, the Fed's chief has already excluded the option of raising the interest rate tomorrow but she has not ruled out raising it next June.

I see that the figure of US Q1 GDP can play a big role in placing the Fed's forward guidance in its new economic assessment tomorrow by God's will.